The run in........

[Guest]

It's getting tight at the top and saturdays forthcoming match V Averley ...looks a 6 pointer...as if they win they are right in there too....

 

The run in look hard for all the teams ! and I am sure all teams may lose a couple of matches before the end of the season...fingers crossed its not us !!

 

Lets get that attendence figure up for saturday...get talking to those part timers , we need them for the run in...and with everyone getting behind the team !! we can do it together !!

 

Our away support last saturday to Hertford was nearly 200 ! a fan....tastic effort....if each of us bring another fan with us saturday we will beat our best for this season...

 

So get those fans to wexham Park...to cheer on the Rebels....

 

Chris Sliski STSA hon Gen Sec................

 

Come on Slough.................

 

<img src="/forums/images/graemlins/cool.gif" alt="" />

<img src="/forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" />

 

 

and not.... <img src="/forums/images/graemlins/frown.gif" alt="" /> on saturday or for the rest of the season......

[BFR]

If we win our remaining 7 homes games we'll be on 80 points. Considering our recent away record I think this is a must. We've got (in no particular order) Aveley, Uxbridge, Yeading, East Thurrock, Tilbury, Wembley and Wingate at home, all of whom we are capable of beating and should beat. Our awa fixtures are the worry however, travelling to Aveley, Thame, Wivenhoe, Hemel, Harlow, Leyton Pennant and Berkhamstead. Hemel and Harlow are the biggies, though the trips to Aveley and Thame will be tough, especially if they continue to climb up the table. Thame crushed Uxbridge 4-0 last and they had been the form team.

Our next four games will be crucial, 3 at home and away to Hemel. If we can get 9 points or better from these matches we'll be in good nick. I feat for the worst though as following these matches we're on the road at Thame, Aveley, Harlow and Wivenhoe. Two Tuesday nights in Essex. Promotion is in our own hands now, we've got to learn to win away.

[Dominic]

For the first time this season we can get promoted on our form and we dont have to hope other teams slip up,it will be interesting to see how the players react to the pressure.We can do it!!!!!!!!

 

COME ON REBELS!!!!!!! <img src="/forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/forums/images/graemlins/smirk.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/forums/images/graemlins/tongue.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/forums/images/graemlins/smirk.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

[BFR]

Agreed Dom, we've got a chance and its in our hands. But realistically we're not going to win every match and it is who we drop points to or lose to that will decide our fate. All of the teams with a sniff of promotion have to play other teams who are in with a shout.

 

Just checking out the promotion rivals big fixtures

Harlow have Slough (h) Wealdstone (h) Thame (a) Barking (h) – bearing in mind Barking are very good on their travels.

 

Hemel have Arlesey (h) – big local derby, Slough (h) Wealdstone (a) Hornchurch (h) – in successive matches no less, Northwood (h) last day of season

 

Hornchurch won’t fancy Thame (a) and Hemel (a) – though their run in looks pretty decent

 

Wealdstone have a few matches now to regroup after recent failings before getting Hemel (h) Uxbridge (a) Harlow (a) Northwood (h)

 

Plenty to play for then. If we can come away from Hemel and Harlow without defeat we've done ourselves a lot of good

[Guest]

I'd probably spit the remaining league fixtures into three parts:

 

[color:"blue"]Stage One[/color]

Aveley (H)

Hemel Hempstead (A)

Wingate & Finchley (H)

Tilbury (H)

 

[color:"blue"]Stage Two[/color]

Thame United (A)

Aveley (A)

Harlow Town (A)

Wivenhoe (A)

 

[color:"blue"]Stage Three[/color]

Uxbridge (H)

East Thurrock United (H)

Leyton Pennant (A)

Yeading (H)

Wembley (H)

Berkhamsted Town (A)

 

Three out of the next four home games is good, because we have been good at home. I think Stage two is where we will need to pick up points with four away games on the trot - I say seven points out of 12 would be good here. That’s probably the where we will find out if were good enough or not

 

One things for sure though, we must get behind the team more than ever and make every away fixture like a home one!

 

[BFR]

That's pretty much my thinking as well Chris. We need to win the next 4 matches to give ourselves the best chance, as its inevitable we will drop points in 'stage two'. Although they're currently on form we should be strong enough to beat Aveley and Wingate and Tilbury should not pose too many problems. Beating Hemel is the key. We play them on 15th March and on that day all the teams in the top ten have losable matches. Whoever wins that day gives themselves a good chance.

From 'stage two' we can't afford to lose to Harlow. Wivenhoe is probably our best chance of a win, though we know what happens on Tuesday nights in Essex. Doubt we'll better Aveley's record crowd which came against Slough in 1971.

Stage three should produce 4 home victories, though how we've done before then is a big factor. Leyton Pennant is a game we should expect to win. Just hope we don't need to go to Berkhamstead on the last day needing a win.

[Paul Stephens]

We have 14 more games to play. Seven at home and seven away. My rough projection says we need 16 points at home and 10 away to get to 85 which will see us up in second. So its five home wins and a draw and three away and a draw.

All very speculative. What I would really like is for us to win our next four matches (Three at home and revenge on Hemel)

[BFR]

I'm not so convinced by the 85 points target you've set. History suggests that teams who average 2 points a game for the season win promotion, so I think we need to get above 90 points. Winning our seven home games would still need us to get 10 points away, and we're most likely to pick up points at Wivenhoe, Leyton Pennant and Berkhamstead. All speculation I know, but its good to actually talk about promotion like its a feasible thing. Had Wealdstone not made a hash of their last three matches I'm sure we'd be calling for Browne's head on a stick even more so than we already have

[Ian]

After suffering a bad run a few weeks ago, and taking stick from Wealdstone and Hornchurch fans for it, it's good to see them suffering similar fates at present. All teams have a bad run at some time (except Northwood it seems) and I'd rather have had it during November/December than now like the others seem to be.

 

With the date for the Wivenhoe game now agreed it's likely that those four away games on the spin will dictate a lot. Hope we can get good support at all of them.

[Dominic]

I better get saving for those stage two fixtures now,my god four away fixtures in a row, i bet lionels happy!!

[Paul Stephens]

Sorry BFR but history does not support you.

For div 1 the top three teams have had

 

99/00 84 75 75 from 42

00/01 85 82 81 from 42

01/02 88 87 79 from 42

 

That is only 4 from 9 have made 2 point a game average.

 

On the other hand my projection is made on season form, and as we approach the end of the season we might find more of the top teams winning, as the lower placed ones give up hope, thus as you say pushing up the points required. A couple of wins on the trot for any team will change the forecast dramatically.

 

Home wins to date are 10% up across the league on last season. Its the away form that will be the decider. Did I not say some time ago that Wealdstones away record was poor, and they had a lot of away games to come.

[Paul Stephens]

[BFR]

Bear in mind that there are two teams winning promotion and your figures back me more than you, with 4 of the 6 teams promoted in the top two getting promoted. Add the fact that there are 46 games this time and I think 90 points is the target to be met. If we need less then great, but we'll be hard pushed

[Guest]

Yes and we the supporters have a major part to play in this too.....we must not start moaning when we go a goal down ! keep shouting encouragement and above all keeping our heads up,and keep the support going , this will give the players the support ! to give it all......

 

Good luck....Up the Rebels......

 

Chris

 

<img src="/forums/images/graemlins/cool.gif" alt="" />

[Paul Stephens]

But there ar 24 teams in the league not 22 this season. And there are more teams in contention, thus reducing the points spread.

 

Its all just guess work lets see how it goes in "phase 1" LOL

[Guest]

In my view we need at least

 

10 points from stage 1

6 points from stage 2

15 points from stage 3

 

If my maths is correct that will bring us 90 points and from looking at it those points targets are very possible.

 

In stage 1 we must win all our home matches and get at least a point at Hemel.

Stage 2 will require at least one away win but if we can get two maybe most likely Wivenhoe and Thame that would give us six already and other draws would be a bonus especially if we could get something at Harlow.

Stage 3 is the important stage not just because it's the last but because setting a target of 15 leaves 3 points from the sixth game that we could catch up on if we mess up before. Four home games and two away games which are probably the easiest two of the seven we have left considering Wivenhoe is a Tuesday night.

 

The other thing to note is that most of the other top teams still have battles against each other and if the majority end in draws or at least different teams winning each time then this will lower the points we need to go up. However, I think the most important thing for us is to keep plugging away and not worry about the others. The worst thing that could happen is that we become complacent that the others will keep slipping up and we do the same. We have the best form out of the top teams (excluding Northwood) at the moment and we need to keep that up.

 

 

[Paul Stephens]

I think your last point is right Radder, at some stage two teams in contention have to share 3 (or 2 ) points between them. That is why my formula thinks 85 is safe for 2nd spot. But if any team gets on a roll their forecast will change quickly. We have the best chance to do that with 3 of the next 4 at home