Lies Damned lies and Statistics

[Paul Stephens]

So far there have been 137 home wins. 100 away wins and 67 draws. An away win is more likely then a draw.

5 teams can end up higher than us on a win all theri remaining matches basis (I know that cant happen as they have to play each other)

Northwood and wealdstone have playe 15 and 14 matches at home respectively, and owe their high league positions to home for, (35/23 = 58 for Northwood, 35/14 = 49 for wealdstone. Wealstone have played less away games than anybody (10)

Slough have played only 11 home games along with 3 other teams, only hertford have played less (10)

Barking Have the best away record in the league (W8 D3 L2)

If results were to follow the current averages for the rest of the season the top three will be

Northwood 91

Wealdstone 90

Hornchurch 86

hemel 84

 

Slough needs to Keep up the Home form and improve the away form to have any chance (We knew that didn't we)

 

 

[Greengrass]

And the Dividend Forecast, Low. List of the scoring draws worth two points......

[Guest]

Its interesting to see how people look at statistics and try to put a positive spin on them. I calculate the league table on max points available, at present we can all be relegated as Wembley can achieve 78 points and we win the league (Stones) with 115 points (both unlikley).

 

Where I think it will be won and lost is by taking more points from sides in the top half and gaining max points from sides in the bottom half. It is more beneficial to win one lose one, than draw twice with sides in the top six. Our record is W2 D2 L3 with 3 to play.

 

Looking at the games against sides in the top ten you have the following

 

Stones 7

Urchins 5

Hemel 9

Rebels 6

Woods 7

 

I think it is out of these 5 with Hemel the weaker of the 4, my preference would be Stones then Slough, and let the Urchins and Northwood fight again next year.

 

Although we have 13 away games to play 8 are against sides in the bottom half and we have only dropped 3 points total to sides in the bottom half (in bloody Essex at Tilbury the worst side we've seen)

 

Keep plugging away your support deserves it.

 

PS this is classing league table on points dropped.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

Sorry didn't mean to be anon, and those are games left against top ten sides.

[Paul Stephens]

Good points. Except that we dropped stupid points at wembley and other places we should have won. I agree that the top ten teams will be critical, but I think the winners will be those who don't slip on a proverbial banana skin against lower order teams they should beat easily.

 

PS by my calc Wembley can only get 75 points you are the mathematical favourites from Hornchurch 110, northwood 109 Hemel 108 and barking 107 . Maybe we will do better now we have released weaknesses in the striker and keeper areas

 

 

[Wealdstone]

being pedantic n all that, you can't get the max points that you have written, as we all have to play each other therefore cannot win all our games.

 

out of the teams u there at the mo, there is little difference between them.

 

for me its all down to bottle.

[Guest]

well that'll rule you lot out then.!

[Paul Stephens]

Funny I thought that I said that this was theoretical max and not practical someting like

 

"5 teams can end up higher than us on a win all there remaining matches basis (I know that can't happen as they have to play each other)"