Derby...

[Fleet Loyal]

[behindthegoal]

..yeah I fancy it too but at those odds given that it does not run straight under pressure you should have done it each way!!

[Fleet Loyal]

Yeah possibly. The horse did start to drift right slightly in the last furlong or so at the Curragh in the Irish 2000 guineas a few weeks ago so it’ll be interesting to see how he gets on at Epsom.

[Harry J Allstars]

So why did you put the bet on at 13:52 on the 30th of September last year?

[Fleet Loyal]

Generally speaking if you bet anti-post you get decent odds which you wouldn’t get if you waited for the day of the race. There’s a risk that a horse may sustain an injury, fail to train on as a three year old or be withdrawn from a race but that’s the chance you take.

 

Dubawi comfortably won a Group 1 race for two year olds last September over seven furlongs, and is a well bred horse that looked as though he may have represented a good bet for the Derby as a three year old.

 

Hopefully he’ll give Frankie Dettori his first Derby winner.

[Guest]

12/1 THAT IS BLOODY EXCELLENT!!

 

Would I get that price in Coral tom???

cheers

 

 

<img src="/forum/images/graemlins/affig.gif" alt="" />

[Fleet Loyal]

Nah, you probably won’t get twelve’s now mate.

 

Latest Derby Odds

[Fleet Loyal]

Today I'm going for....

 

Epsom

 

1.45 Sundrop

2.15 Momtic

2.50 Impeller

4.10 Cassydora

4.50 Excusez Moi

[FleetFanatic]

Well for the Derby I'd say it's between 2 horses:

 

DUBAWI & MOTIVATOR

 

Last 10 winners all won LTO with last 8 being in the current season;

 

Dubawi, Fracas, Gypsy King, Hattan, Kong, Motivator & Unfurled all qualify.

 

Last 8 winners had either 1 or 2 previous runs that season (horses below are those won LTO to stay with above stat)

Dubawi, Gypsy King, Kong, Motivator & Unfurled all qualify

 

Last 6 winners under 8-1

(from the above Dubawi, Gypsy King, Motivator all qualify.)

 

7 out of last 8 have rating above 112

(kris kin off 108 being the other).

Only 2 horses qualify Motivator & Dubawi.

 

VOTE WOULD GO TO MOTIVATOR ON GROUND/DISTANCE

The negatives for Dubawi would be that Sire did not stay either & they have poor record in the Derby.

 

Then again what do I know? <img src="/forum/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

[FleetFanatic]

Added thought:

 

Combination forecast from any of Walk In The Park, Grand Central, Motivator, Gypsy King & Fracas.

 

20 bets covers all permutations.

[EUFC superb]

how much are people putting on their horses? (I'm to young to bet so i might with my mates)

[Jimmy]

I am going to bet my car keys, in a soap opera card game style.

[Fleet Loyal]

Quite right about the doubts about Dubawi’s ability to stay the mile and half distance, for me Dubawi is the best horse in the line up, but then the best horse doesn’t necessarily win the race.

[FleetFanatic]

Quote:

FleetFanatic said:
VOTE WOULD GO TO MOTIVATOR ON GROUND/DISTANCE

Quote:

FleetFanatic said:
Added thought:
Combination forecast from any of Walk In The Park, Grand Central, Motivator, Gypsy King & Fracas.

20 bets covers all permutations.

Great call by Fleet on both accounts! <img src="/forum/images/graemlins/applaus.gif" alt="" />

[Fleet Loyal]

Did you have a bet on it FF?

 

Must admit I think I'd underestimated Motivator a bit. Won very well.

[Wobbly Wayne rides again]

Motivator was my saving grace as Kerashan and Brunel had let me down badly earlier on, Jimmy Murtagh is an Epsom legend, although even at my weight I think I may have steered him home today.

 

Whilst in the frenzy of betting today , did see that the Fleet have drifted to 40-1 for next season, with only 2 teams at larger odds, have the bookies got our measure.

 

Up the Fleet ... London Branch

[FleetFanatic]

Quote:

Fleet Loyal said:
Did you have a bet on it FF?

Must admit I think I'd underestimated Motivator a bit. Won very well.

Your nag looked in with a shout towards the end but as suspected, the rollercoaster nature of the Epsom course got to it - just as well as my forecast would've been out of the window.

Like you, I backed my horse antepost - was planning on laying it when the odds shortened - but with true arrogance <img src="/forum/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />, I was 100% confident in it winning so decided not to lose any winnings by laying.

As for the combination forecast, as I was confident of Motivator winning, I simply did Motivator to win & any of the other 4 horses I suggested into just 4 bets @ £5 a piece.

£20 on the forecasts - the winning £5 returned £165.05. <img src="/forum/images/graemlins/applaus.gif" alt="" />
I'd rather not mention the bet on Motivator to win as it returned considerably more! <img src="/forum/images/graemlins/applaus.gif" alt="" />

Let's just say that it more than made up for losing out on £2,000 when Gravesend nicked a draw at Carlisle. <img src="/forum/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

[Fleet Loyal]

Sounds like you done well. What price did you get when backing Motivator and did you back him before or after his win in the Dante Stakes at York?

 

Distance was a couple of furlong to far for Dubawi whose optimum distance looks to be about ten furlongs.

 

Anyway Prix du Jockey-Club (French Derby) today run over a shorter distance (10f) and I reckon Shamardal could give Godolphin and Frankie Dettori something to celebrate this weekend.