Safely up...or not?

[PJ-STFC]

OK, tonight's draw against Worthing means Slough now on 87 points - still in 4th, and almost certainly safe for 'promotion'.

But just how safe is Slough's top-six finish?

 

Just to set our minds at rest, a little conjecture...

 

Being really, REALLY, pessimistic, what would it take for Slough to drop to 7th place on Saturday?

 

Well, I reckon that all the following would need to happen:

 

(i) Slough lose against Croydon by at least one goal (unthinkable, really, given current form, and a home tie, but it's the only way the maths works...)

 

(ii) Hampton must win against Leatherhead (a draw would put Slough ahead of H&R on GD)

 

(iii) Staines must beat Met Police by 7 goals

 

(iv) Dulwich must beat Walton & H by 14 goals

 

...which is good news: how ever likely (i) and (ii) are to occur, it is pretty unrealistic to think that Staines and Dulwich can win by those margins!

 

So it looks like rebelboy is right (see other thread), 99.99999% safely top-six now.

 

WELL DONE REBELS - THIS YEAR YOU'VE DONE US PROUD

 

PJ <img src="/images/graemlins/chat.gif" alt="" />

[Burnham Lad]

A masterly analysis, PJ!

 

But someone else said the nagging doubts are always there until the Fat referee blows his whistle. And some of the other possible results (forgive me beginning a sentence with a preposition), are perhaps a little more possible - 7 nil wins are few and far between but the goal difference can be demolished by a 3 nil loss on our part and a 4 nil win on their's - which would also change the H&R dynamic.

 

As I said to someone last night, if I chewed my fingernails, I wouldn't have any left after the last couple of weeks!

 

But away with such anxieties - confidence! Just think, our reward could be playing Maidenhead next season!

[evadne]

Of course we are!

 

But which league will we be playing in next season? Someone clever (and with a map) ought to be able to work it out now that most of the candidates for promotion/relegation/staying at the same level, etc., are known.

[Dominic]

As you probably know it's all on www.tonykempster.co.uk but the final league set up has not even been finalised by the feeder leagues yet, we could end up in the Southern Premier or The Ryman Premier.

[Tuffley Rebel]

I would prefer it if we got placed in the Southern Premier. New grounds, teams and fans.

The southern league in general seems to be better supported, we might have some away supporters turning up next year.

However, it would be good if we could stay in the same league as our landlords. The two derbies were definately among the most keenly competitive matches this season.

[Rebel Rebel]

Well done Rebels!

 

The players have certainly done their bit this season. We only need the admin staff to make sure we don't field any ineligible players on Saturday to avoid a points deduction to cement our place in next season's Premier League.

 

"We Are Premier League..." (almost)

[Guest]

'And' is not a preposition, it is a conjuction!

[Guest]

Just seeking clarification!

At present we are two (2) divisions below the Conference. When we gain promotion next Sat we will be two (2) divisions below the Conference proper. Am I right or am I right? So what has changed?

[Radders]

You are right and yes, in reality nothing has changed. However, the fact that we have finished in the top 6 means we are not effectively RELEGATED which I'm sure we are all happy about. The only way we could have been 'promoted' this season would be to have finished top (1 place out of 24) AND then won a series of play off matches, so considering where we were at Christmas I am very happy that we will still be at the same level next year.

[Dominic]

We have avioded a relegation further down the pyramid, even though it's not technically a promotion we will be playing a higher class of opposition since the leagues will be made up of a mix of Bottom of Ryman and Doc Martens prem and top of Ryman and Doc Martens One. We will be visiting new/better grounds and seeing higher crowds.

[Paul Stephens]

Instead of going:

 

1 - 3 - 5 - 15 mixed league sizes

 

the pyramid now goes

 

1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 15 all laegues 22 teams

 

so although we remain 2 steps below the conference, we are in a ougher league than we were. Its a 1/2 promotion 1/2 reorganisation.

 

Just explain to me why the southern league gets two of the four leagues in step 4 next year and the ryman only gets 1. (ie goes from ryman 1N (24 teams), Ryman 1 south(24), ryman 2(15) to Ryman division 1 (22 teams))

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

Because in the great scheme of things, the Southern League carries more clout.

 

That's because when the Alliance Premier League (Conference) was formed in 1979, it was comprised of 13 Southern League and 7 Northern Premier League sides.

 

The Isthmian league, in their infinite wisdom,didn't bother for a number of seasons, the first Isthmian sides in it were Enfield and Dagenham in 1981 and they joined on their own volition to bring it up to 22 teams.

 

It was several years later before automatic promotion and relegation was established between the Conference and the Isthmian.

 

If you want to blame anyone, just look at who was running the Isthmian at that time!!!!