Permutations

[The Crowing Cockerel]

What's going to happen?

    19    Enfield Town      22    -32    48
    20    Salisbury           22     -12    45
    21    St Albans City    22     -15    42

Monday 21st April

Boreham Wood    v    Enfield Town
Salisbury    v    Eastbourne Borough
St Albans City    v    Hemel Hempstead Town

1) Town either win or draw at Boreham Wood, thus ensuring that St Albans can't match their points total and survival at Step 2.

2) Town lose to Boreham Wood. If St Albans do anything other than win, Town will be safe going in to the final game. In the event that St Albans win, Town will retain a 3 point lead over them going in to the final fixture. If Salisbury lose to Eastbourne, then Town will also remain 3 points ahead of them.

Saturday 26th April

Enfield Town    v    Worthing
Truro City    v    St Albans City
Welling United    v    Salisbury

In the event that Town do not secure any points from their visit to Boreham Wood:

1) Town either win or draw against Worthing, thus ensuring that St Albans can't match their points total and survival at Step 2.

2) Town lose to Worthing. If St Albans can't win away at Truro then Town will remain above them and avoid the drop. Equally, assuming Salisbury haven't already matched Town's points total, anything other than a win for Salisbury at Welling would mean that Town finish above them. Defeat for Town, one win for Salisbury and two wins for St Albans, will see Town finish the season in the final relegation spot by virtue of their 'challenging' goal difference.

 

[andyetfc]

Be positive. I can’t see Salisbury and St Albans getting three wins and a draw between them.

[The Crowing Cockerel]

Just now, andyetfc said:

Be positive. I can’t see Salisbury and St Albans getting three wins and a draw between them.

St Albans need to win two to match our current points total. Salisbury need to win one to match our current points total.

[The Crowing Cockerel]

Whilst I'm content that the odds are very much in our favour. This is how the table looked for the final relegation spot in 22/23:

19	Weymouth	23	7	3	13	23	7	3	13	46	14	6	26	59	78	-19	48
20	Dover Athletic	23	7	6	10	23	5	6	12	46	12	12	22	42	68	-26	48
R	Dulwich Hamlet	23	9	3	11	23	4	6	13	46	13	9	24	61	89	-28	48

[andyetfc]

2 hours ago, The Crowing Cockerel said:

St Albans need to win two to match our current points total. Salisbury need to win one to match our current points total.

I stand corrected.  However that would still be a big ask.

[ETFC2001]

I really hope goal difference doesn’t come back to bite us.

[cup of tea]

Can you guys honestly see St Albans turning Truro over away? 

[The Crowing Cockerel]

2 hours ago, cup of tea said:

Can you guys honestly see St Albans turning Truro over away? 

I doubt it, but stranger things have happened. We saw Truro completely bottle it at our place last month. If Truro need to win at all costs, then that might present St Albans with an opportunity.

[The Crowing Cockerel]

On 20/04/2025 at 15:09, ETFC2001 said:

I really hope goal difference doesn’t come back to bite us.

👀

[ETFC2001]

I think losing on goal difference will be the most painful way of going down. 

On 20/04/2025 at 16:49, cup of tea said:

Can you guys honestly see St Albans turning Truro over away? 

The National League South is probably the most unpredictable league in English’s top 6 leagues. I don’t think there’s a lot of gaps between teams except if your a full time club or a part time club. I genuinely think anyone could lose to anyone