FIGHT FOR ONE PLACE

[WHY DO I BOTHER]

To me there are 4 promotion places sewn up… Hornchurch… Billericay… Chatham and Horsham… Basically they are the best 4 teams… i’m going to count out Wingate …Bognor and Carlshalton as not good enough for the final place so it’s The Town… Hastings… and i expect a late surge from Dulwich and Lewes…. Are we better than those lot time will tell…. 

[lovely stuff]

Starting to look like most other seasons over the last decade.

We either end up a few places off the play-off's, or we scrape into 5th and lose the first knock-out game.

Was hoping it might be different with Gavin in charge. Next season will be the acid test on whether it is just more of the same, of if Gavin can take us to the next level that previous managers have not been able to do..

Edited February 18 by lovely stuff

[55 seasons]

Not a bad assessment from why do I bother. We have to play Hastings and Dulwich both away which will be tough. Our form is not as bad as the form table suggests but we probably need 9 out of the next 3 games. Knights return will help but some strengthening needed if we are to get over the play off line.

[The Crowing Cockerel]

3 hours ago, 55 seasons said:

Not a bad assessment from why do I bother. We have to play Hastings and Dulwich both away which will be tough. Our form is not as bad as the form table suggests but we probably need 9 out of the next 3 games. Knights return will help but some strengthening needed if we are to get over the play off line.

Mid-Feb and Gavin is still trying to find the answer to our defensive frailties. I think that part of the team needs a complete re-think/re-build over the summer. We've consistently failed against the top sides in the division and barring something very special over the next few weeks don't deserve to be in the play-offs come the end of the season. At present I expect us to finish 7th-9th. Is our budget just not enough to make us competitive enough to secure promotion? Had the wheels not come off against Cray Valley would the FA Cup windfall have made a difference? Plenty of 'what-ifs'. Still, it could always be worse - just look at Cheshunt!

[Steph]

4 hours ago, WHY DO I BOTHER said:

To me there are 4 promotion places sewn up… Hornchurch… Billericay… Chatham and Horsham… 

I would not include Billericay in that foursome. And Horsham must be doubtful as they do not score enough goals. Billericay have lost a third of their fixtures, and whilst they seem to not like draws over much, I would include them as 2 out of 5. Similarly I would not write off Finchley. The table does not lie.

Dulwich away form is not good enough and half their games are away.  I think their recent form puts them in with a shout next year but they were surprisingly poor early season.

So by my reckoning the fourth and fifth place is between us, Finchley, Billericay, Horsham and Hastings. We have played those five clubs 5 times between them and have 3 left to play, Finchley (who we beat 4-1 at their place), Horsham (We drew 1-1 at theirs) and Hastings (we beat 3-1) at home.

So on form I would suggest that the two play off places left are ours and Billericay to lose.

But football is a funny old game.

 

[WHY DO I BOTHER]

4 hours ago, Steph said:

So by my reckoning the fourth and fifth place is between us, Finchley, Billericay, Horsham and Hastings. 

Interesting analysis…. just to make clear if you make 4th &5th between those who did you make the top 3 Hornchurch Chatham and ?…..

[Barney]

Some interesting discussion - I can't help but feel that we'd be a lot more positive about where we are had we had a slow start to the season (easily explained by a new manager and many new players), and were moving up the table towards the play-off places at present. It's frustrating that we'd got ourselves into the box seat for the play offs by Christmas, and our form has tailed off of late - I've not been able to get to many games, but from what I've read/heard, it sounds like we're mostly competing, but we're not always getting the breaks in tight games and are losing by the odd goal, rather than being totally outplayed. Maybe we were just getting more of those breaks earlier in the season, maybe other teams are slightly wiser to how we set up, and are more easily able to nullify our threats and expose our weaknesses. Maybe we're lacking confidence, or certain key players are running out of steam in a demanding season.

Whatever the reason, with a new manager coming in, I think our performances have been encouraging enough in what is a tough league - clearly there is some more tweaking to do, and some more ins and outs required, but as a first season, I think Gavin and the management team deserve a lot of credit for what they've done so far. The hope/expectation is that we kick on from here, both for the remainder of this season, and for next season and given Gavin's honesty and frankness when performances haven't been good enough, at least I have confidence that he knows what's needed, and where we're lacking and need to improve.

Do I think we'll make the play off places? As always, I'm very much on the fence - if we do sneak into 5th place, I don't necessarily think we'll automatically lose the first game - anything can happen in 2 one off games (look at Cheshunt when they went up at the expense of Hornchurch). As with anything involving this club, and the supporter owned model - patience is the key. Are we ready to compete at the step above? Honestly, probably not. The club understand the need for better infrastructure, and revenue streams which will support us sustainably at the next level. I know everyone wants a quick win, and promotion, but given some of the clubs we're competing against, and some of the clubs that are struggling towards the bottom of the step above, that realistically isn't going to happen and we probably need to take a longer-term view. Would I change that supported owned model for a quick rise (and potentially even more dramatic fall)? - definitely not.

[Steph]

17 hours ago, WHY DO I BOTHER said:

Interesting analysis…. just to make clear if you make 4th &5th between those who did you make the top 3 Hornchurch Chatham and ?…..

My mistake. At my age these things happen. So, IMV, it is us, Finchley, Billericay, Horsham and Hastings going for 3 play off places.

>> Barney Even at the relatively early stages of the season we lost 4-0 to Lewes at their place and 3-0 to Carshalton at home. We were 10th and 6th respectively after those games. (Pause for thought - has it been the loss of Okotcha from the line up that has caused the relative loss of form? )

[Barney]

5 hours ago, Steph said:

>> Barney Even at the relatively early stages of the season we lost 4-0 to Lewes at their place and 3-0 to Carshalton at home. We were 10th and 6th respectively after those games. (Pause for thought - has it been the loss of Okotcha from the line up that has caused the relative loss of form? )

Yep, fair point - although even with those two poor performances / results (and one or two others), the first half of the season up until Christmas / New Years was very much a success story. Since then, our form has been patchy at best, albeit we've not been playing terribly. Let's hope it's a blip and that the pre-Christmas form is rediscovered soon - if so, I'd back us to make one of those 3 play off places.

Hard to say with Okocha, he's a tidy player, and definitely one that I'm more than happy to see on the teamsheet, but I don't think all our good/bad form can be down to a single player - that said, I suspect his points per start is higher than most others in the squad... who'd be a manager?

Edited February 19 by Barney

[The Crowing Cockerel]

1 hour ago, Steph said:

- has it been the loss of Okotcha from the line up that has caused the relative loss of form? 

I don't think so. I think the issue was that Marcus and RBR haven't been able to consistently score 3+ goals per game all season. They performed miracles early on, but when they have fallen off a little the leaky defence has cost us dearly. I'd like two new centre-halves for the beginning of next season.

[Father Jack]

As most other  teams seem to have at least one massive unit at the back, I'd quite like one of those!

[andyetfc]

Don’t forget that we are in a much better position in the table than quite a few teams.

[Benjrider10]

I thought Richmond and Okotcha formed a strong CB partnership over the first few months and also wonder whether the introduction of MacKenzie has changed the squad dynamic. But the manager wants competition for places (which is a good thing).

Talking of which, I'm looking forward to seeing Tanner (perhaps tonight)? The signing announcement said he is a left footed defender - so competition for Joe Payne. Shame Keeya hasn't returned because he also provided good competition in midfield. I have a feeling we will put on a good show tonight (rain, rain, stay away .....)

[The Crowing Cockerel]

1 hour ago, Benjrider10 said:

I'm looking forward to seeing Tanner (perhaps tonight)? The signing announcement said he is a left footed defender - so competition for Joe Payne. 

Thought I read he was a left footed centre half?

[djwilf]

Last season we finished conceding 49 goals.

This year with 13 games to go we've conceded 44 which is only 5 less than  the whole of last season surprisingly.

Whilst hopefully we'll score more goals than last year, it appears we will also concede more and not sure our GD will be as high but we can but hope.   Our meltdown at the end of last season obviously wasn't great....however we are in a very tight race and the 3 teams below us are separated by only 3 points.  

I think our last dominant CB was probably Jerry G and whilst we have defended well in patches and certain games this year we are severely lacking in consistency.   Going to be quite tough to stay in the playoff positions.

[cup of tea]

Might be two places, Billericay are not in good form (16th) and after tonight, these are their next 6 fixtures

 

Stay positive guys.

 

[OldTowner]

C o T - Thanks, good post

However, hard to stay positive after a shambolic performance v K’s last night !