SSML Projections - 2021/22

[Rhodes]

You will recall the thread created last season on the Projections which had to be aborted, I gather that the aim was to have 1. one new League in the North at Step 4 level (totalling 8 Leagues) 2. two new Leagues at Step 5 level (totalling 16 Leagues) and 3. three fewer Leagues at Step 6 level (totalling 17 Leagues), has anything changed. Here is the speculative spreadsheet again for discussion that sees Tring Athletic and Colney Heath placed in the Isthmian League Central Division:

Non League Projections - 2021/2022 - Google Drev

 

Edited April 5, 2021 by Rhodes

[Rhodes]

The FA have yet to announce whether the restructuring of Non League football will take place ahead of next season, the FA’s Alliance Committee have apparently requested a feasibility study to explore whether a mechanism could be found to promote Club's at Steps 5, 6 and 7. Watch this space for further information.

[Rhodes]

This is an interesting development, the FA Alliance and Leagues Committees have recommended that the Non-League restructure for 2021/22 takes place, the deadline seems extremely tight:

[Rhodes]

A fuller picture of the restructuring proposals, they are currently being discussed and analysed on another Forum by 'the experts':

Pyramid Restructure - Step 4 to 6 | Page 5 | NonLeagueMatters Forums

[Savagebee]

Amersham Town, Hillingdon Borough, London Tigers and Rayners Lane could be Combined Counties bound ?

Edited April 13, 2021 by Savagebee

[Rhodes]

They are still going at it hammer and tongs on another Forum and as always they go right down into the weeds and leave no stone unturned, this post mentions the SSML:

Pyramid Restructure - Step 4 to 6 | Page 6 | NonLeagueMatters Forums

It is but that doesn't make it 'pure or perfect'
If there are supposed to be 16 divisions at each step (SWP = 2 halves) then the intention is for them to cover the same area.
Spartan South Midlands 1 will be promoting almost exclusively to United Counties South for the first few seasons before some form of convergence. Clubs would prefer some form of certainty about which direction they will likely travel at each step.
Assuming pooling remains there will always be teams on the border who are at risk of lateral transfers but over the next few seasons there will be teams moved in the same direction.
For instance with the SWP promoting teams but not receiving any back from the Western Premier, the Step 5 border between WNP & HLP will keep moving South of Bristol, this will happen over most of the country.

[Rhodes]

I see that Colney Heath aren't going to turn down promotion if it is offered to them on a plate, why should they:

Colney Heath will accept promotion if and when it is offered to them after the FA opted to push on with the planned but delayed restructure of the non-league pyramid. 

Colney Heath will accept promotion as part of FA restructure | Herts Advertiser

[GRS67]

8 minutes ago, Rhodes said:

I see that Colney Heath aren't going to turn down promotion if it is offered to them on a plate, why should they:

Colney Heath will accept promotion if and when it is offered to them after the FA opted to push on with the planned but delayed restructure of the non-league pyramid. 

Colney Heath will accept promotion as part of FA restructure | Herts Advertiser

Is their ground suitable to host Step 4 football? 

 

[GRS67]

This is the latest projection I've had for the Combined Counties League North Division 

 

It should consist of these teams (hopefully)

Abbey Rangers

Ascot United Broadfields United Burnham CB Hounslow United Edgware Town Egham Town Flackwell Heath Hanworth Villa Holyport Molesey North Greenford United

Reading City Southall

Spelthorne Sports Virginia Water Walton & Hersham Wembley Windsor Wokingham & Emmbrook

[Rhodes]

On 16/04/2021 at 10:37, GRS67 said:

Is their ground suitable to host Step 4 football? 

Colney Heath's ground is quite basic but I'm sure it will be fine with a few improvements to meet Step 4 criteria:

[Rhodes]

I have it on good authority that should a Club not apply for promotion, or fail in their application for whatever reason, other Club's lower down the table could be eligible if they meet the criteria. In League's where just one Club will be upwardly moved the FA could go down to 3rd place to find a suitable candidate, that will extend to 5th place in Leagues intended to elevate three Club's.  If the blazers in the FA Council approve the restructure proposal put before them, Club's will then be invited to formally apply for upward movement within a short timescale. At Steps 5 and 6 applications will be decided on 2019/20 and 2020/21 point per game (ppg) and ‘additional requirements’, these are likely to include Club licensing, finances, ground grading and length of tenure. Watch this space for further information:

Mouth of the Tyne: How the step four restructure could look | Herts Advertiser

Edited April 17, 2021 by Rhodes

[Rhodes]

Here's an interesting article and listing of 84 Club's in line for promotion including Colney Heath, New Salamis, St Panteleimon and Milton Keynes Irish:

REVEALED: The 84 teams set for promotion due to non league restructure - Fan Banter

[Rhodes]

The latest speculative projections spreadsheet and listing of each promotion applicant for both 2019/20 and 2020/21 including Codicode, Berkhamsted Comrades and Berkhamsted Raiders as well as Eynesbury United, Cranfield United, Eaton Socon FC, Letchworth Garden City Eagles, Royston Town Reserves, Rugby Borough, Moulton, Thrapston Town, FC Parsons Drove and Peterborough North End Sports who are in line to join, or possibly join, the SSML. Karen will have to start brushing up on her geography in time for next season:

Projection 2021-2022 - Steps 4 to 6 - Google Sheets

[Rhodes]

Who heard FA Alliance Committee and FA Council member Anthony Hughes on Ollie Bayliss's BBC Three Counties Radio Non League Show this afternoon, he knows his onions doesn't he and comes across as a really nice and genuine guy:

The Non-League Show - Plans For The Non-League Restructure - BBC Sounds

[Rhodes]

On 13/04/2021 at 10:18, Rhodes said:

It's 'D Day' today isn't it where the blazers at the FA Council meet and vote on the restructuring proposal put before them.

[Rhodes]

The restructuring process in full:

[GRS67]

10 minutes ago, Rhodes said:

It's 'D Day' today isn't it where the blazers at the FA Council meet and vote on the restructuring proposal put before them.

Your a few weeks off, May 17th is when it'll all be anmonced 

[Rhodes]

Continued:

[GRS67]

On 16/04/2021 at 09:41, GRS67 said:

This is the latest projection I've had for the Combined Counties League North Division 

 

It should consist of these teams (hopefully)

Abbey Rangers

Ascot United Broadfields United Burnham CB Hounslow United Edgware Town Egham Town Flackwell Heath Hanworth Villa Holyport Molesey North Greenford United

Reading City Southall

Spelthorne Sports Virginia Water Walton & Hersham Wembley Windsor Wokingham & Emmbrook

Updated projection 

 

Abbey Rangers Ascot United Broadfields Burnham Hounslow Edgware Hanworth Holyport Molesey North Greenford Reading City Southall Spelthorne Virginia Water Walton & H Wembley Windsor Wokingham and E

[Rhodes]

1 minute ago, GRS67 said:

Your a few weeks off, May 17th is when it'll all be announced 

Yes but if the blazers at the FA Council don't nod the proposal through today it will be a non-starter won't it so that's what I meant by 'D Day' although it's invariably just a formality when something is put in front of them.