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AGM ?


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Very well attended meeting, standing room only.

 

The tone of the meeting was skillfully set by the Chairman and those directors presenting did very well to paint a very positive picture. Good speeches by the two newly elected board members, both of whom showed their passion for the club. I hope that those not elected this time will continue to be involved - those volunteers are much appreciated and that was made clear at the meeting. Board members are elected by rotation - I think I'm right in saying this is the first time there have been more people standing than places available so that's the reason you might not have had to vote for some directors before! Quality of candidates this time was excellent, can only be a positive.

 

Dave Bryant's anti betting motion was overwhelmingly passed on a show of hands. 

 

Team matters discussion with Andy and Darren was open and honest and there were some tough questions presented. Andy I think rated their performance to date as 5 or 6 out of 10 but was largely positive. Indicated that we are about 15 points behind his target - hasn't given up on a play off place (remember the good run last year?) but realises this will be tough given current squad limitations. Said they started as work in progress, now building - mentioned 3 or 4 recent targets who would have improved the squad but for one reason or another have not come to join us, they continue to look at players and have further targets. Interesting comments made by Darren about defending corners - apparently we never leave nobody back at corners!

 

Mood of the meeting seemed to be that the management team should be judged at this time/end of next season - with a minority of dissenters.

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Another thing that needs to be said is a ' BIG thank you' to all our elected Board members who put an incredible amount of time, effort, and expertise into running our Club.

I am sure that the majority of members present at the AGM on Thursday evening, would have been very impressed with what they heard, particularly with regard to various initiatives being taken to move our Club forward. It has come a long way since 2001, and it is very reassuring that our future progress is in very capable hands. They deserve our full backing and support.

 

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One thing that Andy mentioned which hasn’t cropped up here was the disparity between the results on a Saturday and those on a Tuesday. Andy said that the Tuesday results were significantly worse because there was no time to work with the players between a Saturday afternoon and a Tuesday evening. This, he said, was particularly problematic given that the squad was one which was still in the process of getting to know each other football-wise.

 

This sounded like quite an interesting point, and superficially it sounded as if there might be something in it. So I decided to have a look. (We’ve played 3 games on a Monday, but since Andy didn’t mention that, I’ve left them out. For those interested we’ve won both home games and lost an away game on that day).

 

On a Saturday we’ve played 15, won 4, drawn 8 and lost 3 (points: 20. That’s 1.3 per game).

On a Tuesday we’ve played 10, won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 (points: 10. That’s 1.0 per game).

That would seem to bear out Andy’s claim.

 

However, if we look at the records in terms of home and away games, it’s certainly not anything like as clear cut.

 

On a Saturday we’ve played 6 away games (3 draws, 3 defeats). That’s 0.5 points per game.

On a Tuesday we’ve played 7 away games (2 wins, five defeats). That’s 0.9 points per games.

So we’ve actually done BETTER away from home on a Tuesday compared to a Saturday.

 

On a Saturday we’ve played 9 home games (4 wins, 5 draws). That’s 1.9 points per game.

On a Tuesday we’ve played 3 homes games (1 win, 1 draw, 1 defeat). That’s 1.3 points per game.

We appear to do better at home on Saturday (1.9 points compared to 1.3), BUT we’ve only actually played 3 home games on a Tuesday and that isn’t really enough to see a pattern emerge.

 

So, all in all, I don’t really think Andy can use the Saturday/Tuesday argument to be honest.

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Something else which Andy said, and has been mentioned in this thread, is the fact that he hasn’t completely given up on a play-off place. So I decided to see what sort of a run we’d have to go on for that to happen.

 

In the last four seasons (when there have been 24 teams in our league) the points gained by the 5th club are:

 

2013-14: 83

2014-15: 76 (I’m using the total ETFC got before we were robbed of three points by the FA)

2015-16: 81

2016-17: 75

 

That makes an average of 79. However, four seasons isn’t really a lot to base estimates on, so I decided to add another four seasons from our nearest equivalent: what’s now called the Evostick:

 

2013-14: 80

2014-15: 81

2015-16: 86

2016-17: 81

 

That makes an average of 82.

 

Putting all eight totals together makes an average of 80.375.

 

Andy mentioned that about 81 points would be needed and the Football Webpages site predicts the fifth team will get 80.

 

So, all in all, it looks likely that we’d need 80 or 81.

 

Well, we’ve only got 36 so far, which means we’d need another 44 or 45! And we’ve only got 18 games left!

 

In other words, we can only afford to lose 3 more games, and we’ve got to win the other 15! If Andy pulls that off, he’ll deserve every plaudit known to man!

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Gentlemen, "Amicus Plato, sed magis amica veritas".

 

 

I remember doing a similar prediction a few years ago when we were in real danger of being relegated. I couldn't remember the exact figures invoked so I checked back. Bizarrely, I discovered that the post was on 21 January 2014 (i.e. exactly four years ago). Anyway, in that posted I wrote that we would need 47-50 points to stay up. If you look a the final table for that year, you'll see that the team in 22nd place (relegated) got 46 points. The team in 21st (stayed up) got 49, so 47 would have been OK. (We ended up with 51 points that season).

 

Just saying!  :)

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