The Run Home

[waggamick1]

Just looking at the remaining games and ET's prospects of making the top 5.

ET Currently 10th 30 games 10-3-3 @ Home 4-1-9 Away 46 points (Leiston 5th on 52 points)

 

3/2 Burgess Hill  Away      14th      31 games   7-2-6   @ Home              40 pts.

6/2 Leatherhead Away      13th      29 games   7-3-9   @ Home              43 pts.

13/2 Lewes Home             24th      30 games   1-3-11 @  Away              18 pts 

20/2 Staines Town Away   19th      28 games   4-2-7   @ Home              32 pts.

27/2 VCD Home                22nd     31 games   3-2-10 @ Away               25 pts.

5/3 Met Police Away          15th      28 games   5-4-6   @ Home              40 pts.

8/3 Tonbridge  Away           6th      28 games   5-4-4   @ Home              49 pts.

12/3 Bognor Regis Home   4th       28 games   5-2-5   @ Home.             53 pts.

19/3 Farnborough Away    23rd     29 games   7-1-6    @ Home             23 pts.

26/3 Dulwich Home            1st       30 games   7-3-4    @ Away              57 pts.

28/3 Brentwood Away        21st     26 games   4-2-4     @ Home             25pts.

2/4 Grays Home                 9th      28 games   6-3-3     @ Away              46 pts

9/4 Merstham Away          17th      33 games   5-3-9     @ Home             33 pts.

16/4 Needham Home        20th     31 games   4-5-7     @ Away               31 pts.

23/4 H & R Away                3rd      29 games   9-3-2     @ Home              56 pts.

        Kingstonian Home     8th       28 games   6-5-5     @ Away               48 pts.

 

28/4 Play Offs 2nd v 5th  3rd v 4th 

 

16 Games Left

8 Home 8 Away

 

Encouraging is the fact that:

We face 10 Clubs below us on the Table of which 3 we play at Home and 7 we play Away

We face 6 Clubs above us on the table of which we play 4 at Home and 2 away.

 

Looking at the current table that sees us 6 pts(2 wins) adrift of 5th place we have to contend with the fact that our rivals for 5th Place ;

Bognor are 4th on 53 pts and have 2 games in hand on us. ( theoretically giving them 3 pts from a possible 6 sees them on 56)

Leiston are 5th on 52 pts and have 1 game in hand on us.   (1 from 3  53)

Tonbridge are 6th on 49 pts and have 2 games in hand on us. (3 from 6 52)

Billericay are 7th on 48 pts and have played the same number of games. (stay on 48)

Kingstonian are 8th 48 pts and have 2 games in hand on us.  (3 from 6 51)

Grays are 9th on 46 pts and have 2 games in hand on us. (3 from 6 49)

ETFC 10th on 46 pts.

W & F 11th on 44 pts and have played the same number of games. (stay on 44)

Canvey are 12th on 44 pts and have played 3 MORE games than us. (stay on 44)

Leatherhead are 13th on 43 pts and have 1 game in hand on us. (1 from 3 44)

Burgess Hill are 14th on 40 pts and have played one MORE game than us. (stay on 40)

Met Police are 15th on 40 pts and have 2 games in hand on us.   (3 from 6 43)

Harrow are 16th on 39 pts and have 2 games in hand on us. (3 from 6 42)

 

So theoretically giving the teams around us half the possible points for their games in hand puts us a theoretical 7 points out of 5th.

Of those around us we play Bognor(H), Tonbridge (A), Kingstonian (H), Grays (H). Leatherhead (A), Burgess(A) and Met Police (A).

 

[4wembleyfinals]

A very erudite and well thought out summation WaggM1. I follow your logic but

if one applies current trends, in our results pattern, to the Theory of

Probability we will fall far short in attaining 5th place than you anticipate.

 

If we stick to academic hypothesis then under the latter theory we would only

expect to attain appox. a further 20pts. I don't wish to bore everyone as to how

this is calculated but rest assured it on sound mathematic principles.

 

Fortunately, all the circumstances arising in a football match cannot be accounted for under by using a theory. So basically the outcome of this season relies on

increasing our away win ratio.

 

I believe a minimum points target, based on the current position

of the clubs

above and around us should be 79 points, ie another 33 pts or 11

wins. This can be achieved by

retaining our current home form by taking 15 points from our 7 Homes games and

18 points from our last 9 away games. This means a major increase in our away points This can be readily achievable if when in front or level we must be more patient and be more resilient at the back and it is down to management to drum this in

the players.

 

Finally, on a different note, I am still awaiting news of new signings referred to at the AGM. Has anyone heard of any news or were we told this just

to placate us!!!???

[waggamick1]

So true 4WF.

And its the unpredictability of sport that is one of its great attractions.

The momentum of form factor is crucial. One win, then another and all of a sudden a team that has been under performing starts to perform and in some cases over perform producing results that stun even their most loyal admirers. Confidence is the 12th man in football.

The obverse reads true and gaining or losing momentum(slump) is so often undefinable with nothing out of the ordinary that you can identify to address the situation.

At the same time my offering above doesn't take into account the gain or loss of form by the other teams around us.

Injury, fatigue and locker room disharmony can be devastating in the run home.

Throw in the totally inexplicable phenomenon of bogie teams and ground hoodoos and that's why Sports Bookmakers are driving Rollers and their clients are catching the bus.

 

Using your: This can be achieved by retaining our current home form by taking 15 points from our 7 Homes games and 18 points from our last 9 away games.

 

Should we not lose a game between now and the Play Offs then:

4 wins + 3 draws at Home

5 wins + 4 draws Away

would get us there.

 

If the momentum's there it could well happen but a more likely scenario might be:

5-1-1 at Home (16 pts)..the Draw and the Loss being most likely against Bognor (4th) and Dulwich(1st)..the other Home games are definitely winnable.

5-2-2 Away (17 pts)..the most likely Losses Away are H & R (3rd) and Tonbridge (6th) but the rest of the Away games look very winnable.

 

So your call for much improved Away form may well happen...a Win against Bognor or Dulwich would certainly help the cause.

 

Here's hoping for a nice run home!

[4wembleyfinals]

Wgm1, I do hope you are right, if not there is always the next year. That is if

we can sought out the team a little better than the beginning of

this season.

 

If we do make it all the way then the above will be of greater importance if we

want to survive in a higher league. It will also require a larger budget than that

currently available.

[waggamick1]

Not being there makes it hard to get 'the lay of the land'.

What would be the average sign on and match fees for an ETFC player?

How many are home grown?

Is there a reasonable chance of a Reserves player getting a run in Firsts?

[4wembleyfinals]

In reply to your questions, so far as I am concerned, I have no answers other than guess work!!!

 

Do these questions get asked at the formal meetings for members. I would have thought

these and other questions regarding the raising and spending of the clubs finances

are paramount in a "Members Owned Club".

 

I would be very surprised if they haven't been discussed. If they have then the minutes of meetings should answer some of the points you have raised. Since all members are deemed equal

"Share Holders" I would think this sort of information a priority

or have I missed the point of a Supporters Owned Club.