9 horse race

[Sir Rebel1965]

With the promotion race down to JUST 9 teams it looks like it will be an interesting conclusion to the season.

 

There is now a clear gap between 9th placed Kettering (43 points played 23)  and 10th placed Egham (35 points played 26)

 

However with teams having played between 21 and 28 games so far, the table is less than easy to read considering the number of games some teams have to make up.

 

The old saying of "points on the table rather than games in hand" appears to stand up well considering it looks like further games will get called off and rearranged in the remainder of this season.

 

So we have 52 points and currently 3rd having played 28, both Rugby and Dunstable have played the same but are pulling away with 63 & 61 points.  This then leaves the other 6 teams to convert their games in hand into points.

 

Considering we are now starting to get back into gear with a fairly injury free squad, I can see us making a decent push for a play off place, but our efforts may be thwarted by the results of our rivals.

 

The key game for me is the 19th of April with Rugby visiting us - they will need the win to challenge for the top spot and we will need the points for 5th place - could be an interesting game!

[3spirit]

You only have to look at last season's Slough games to know playing catch up is never easy.Dunstable have wobbled in their last two games,if that continues,we have a chance of catching them.

 

If the Slough team stay focused and have the desire to beat whatever team they play, from now to the end of the season,Slough will make the play offs. A huge ask but not impossible.

Keep the faith !

[Mark44]

There are 10 Saturdays until the end of the season.

 

Therefore daventry are already over 2 per week. I'm guessing it will be Easter week if no more are called off but think they will end up like we were.

 

Our form is very good, Dunstable have wobbled and if rugby do as well will throw the whole thing wide open

[Bernie Gogan]

Take a look at Dunstable's next few games! Starts next week visiting us, then Monday after visiting SYCOB!!

[3spirit]

Didn't realise Slough play Dunstable this Saturday !

 

If ever there's a chance to cement our position at the top it's now,as if we can turn over Dunstable,they then have to play SYCOB away on the following Monday and then they face Barton on the Saturday.

 

Lets hope they lose to us and then they either draw or lose both those other games ! I'm wishful thinking and praying at the same time ! ha ha ! 

[Curtis]

Take a look at Dunstable's next few games! Starts next week visiting us, then Monday after visiting SYCOB!!

Followed by Barton and Rugby the following two Saturdays

[Curtis]

With several clubs having games in hand I look at the table with respect to where clubs are in relation to two points per match, and at present for me the table looks like this:-

 

Rugby +7 (63 points from 28 matches, 28 x 2 = 56 points, 63 - 56 = 7)

Dunstable +5

Barton +4

Daventry +3

Royston -1

Beaconsfield -2

Kettering -3

Slough -4

Northwood -7

 

So for me it's close, but we need a good run of results to secure a play-off place..... and with four consecutive league wins, and scoring 14 goals, I'm convinced we're in the form to achieve it.

[Sir Rebel1965]

Now a 8 horse race:

 

Rugby - 95.58

Daventry - 91.63

Dunstable - 88.34

Barton - 84.00

Kettering - 82.32

Slough 79.65

Sycob - 79.50

Royston - 79.33

 

Northwood - 70.50 - out of the running?

 

Points based on points per games so far extrapolated for the remaining games.

 

Looks like a real tight fight for the lower 5 teams to get the last 2 places.

[Mark44]

I would say that it will be Rugby plus 4 of the others........

 

Dunstable seem to have hit a bad patch and will soon be brought into the mix and Daventry have 20 games left to play in 9 Saturdays so will be flat out and will drop points as we saw last year.

[Graham C]

...........but still would prefer a Dunstable win versus Sycob this evening

[Mark44]

Not convinced I would tbh, I think a draw would be the best result........

[Windsor Rebel]

I agree with Mark44, a draw for me

[Hammer_rebel]

Any one heading down to the game tonite?

[Mark44]

I have done some calculations to try and account for the fact that teams have to play catch up and made some assumptions around PPG etc. This is as follows:

 

• Take the PPG teams currently have
• The number of Saturdays left (9) and the number of games each team has remaining.
• For each game lost a team loses 0.07 PPG that cannot be gained back (i.e. 42 * 3/42 is 3, 41*3/42 is 2.93)
• Assume that teams will continue to gain points at the same rate but will lost 0.07 PPG every 3 games midweek.
• Rework PPG for the remaining games taking away anything lost from number of midweek games.
• Multiply new PPG by remaining games plus points already on the board.

This leaves the top 8 as follows:

 

1) Rugby 94

2) Dunstable 87

3) Daventry 86

4) Barton 81

5) Kettering 79

6) Slough 78

7) Beaconsfield 78

8) Royston 77

 

If anyone has any thoughts on above assumptions I can change accordingly, will look to update alongside the PPG someone else is doing but shows how close it is.

[Hammer_rebel]

Wow mark wow!!! Do u have a lot of time on your hands? Lol

[Mark44]

Haha. Knew the statistics degree would come I. Handy one day

[camra rebel]

Kettering's game on Tuesday at home to Ashford is now off, another midweek game for them.

COYR

[readingrebel]

Kettering's game on Tuesday at home to Ashford is now off, another midweek game for them.

COYR

 

 

Their game on Saturday at Egham is also only 50/50.

[readingrebel]

I have done some calculations to try and account for the fact that teams have to play catch up and made some assumptions around PPG etc. This is as follows:

 

• Take the PPG teams currently have
• The number of Saturdays left (9) and the number of games each team has remaining.
• For each game lost a team loses 0.07 PPG that cannot be gained back (i.e. 42 * 3/42 is 3, 41*3/42 is 2.93)
• Assume that teams will continue to gain points at the same rate but will lost 0.07 PPG every 3 games midweek.
• Rework PPG for the remaining games taking away anything lost from number of midweek games.
• Multiply new PPG by remaining games plus points already on the board.

This leaves the top 8 as follows:

 

1) Rugby 94

2) Dunstable 87

3) Daventry 86

4) Barton 81

5) Kettering 79

6) Slough 78

7) Beaconsfield 78

8) Royston 77

 

If anyone has any thoughts on above assumptions I can change accordingly, will look to update alongside the PPG someone else is doing but shows how close it is.

 

 

I've got one thought on the above....sad beyond belief      

[Mark44]

Updated following last nights games

 

1) Rugby 93

2) Dunstable 89

3) Daventry 89

4) Barton 81

5) Kettering 79

6) Slough 78

7) Royston 77

8) Beaconsfield 76