Mr Rebel Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Beaconsfield 3-1 Daventry leaves us 10 points from the final playoff spot with 6 games in hand Daventry at the weekend definitely a game we should be winning but lets get the points at AFC Hayes first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OLDER RAM Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Little old Beaconsfield keep rolling on, onwards and upwards, c'mon you Rams ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windsor Rebel Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yep, a good result for Beaconsfield last night Older Ram, lets hope we can beat them on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OLDER RAM Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Hopefully you can win on Saturday, and with all your games in hand get into the play-offs, thats our aim and hopefully we can have another meet in the play-offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark44 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 No offence but I don't want to meet in the playoffs lol Still get nightmares about the last time Sycob are doing very well though and all credit to Pritchard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RebelsAndBlues Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I agree Mark, Beaconsfield are our bogey side (and rivalry with fan aside, are a good side). I would much rather we avoid them. Saying that, at the moment, I just would be happy for us to be in the play off mix. If playing Beaconsfield means us being the play offs, I'd take that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Rebel Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 to face Beaconsfield in the semi final we would have to probably finish above them which is of course a possibility with the games in hand. if we are in the playoffs i dont really care who we have to play. just gotta be in it to win it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REBEL TRUCKER Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 we are all forgetting if we win all are games in hand we go top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staines_rebel_Jr Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I would be very surprised if we didn't make the play offs at least. the title is still there for the taking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingrebel Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 we are all forgetting if we win all are games in hand we go top To quote 'IF is a big word' HT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HorshamRebel Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Your right ReadingRebel, "IF" is a big word, but "if" is smaller and more doable Think positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rebelbrewer Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Occasionally I cut and paste the table to a spreadsheet to take out the games in hand factor. On a points per game (or percentage basis) we currently sit 5th and would have to win 2 more games straight to go 3rd (assuming there the other teams keep going at the same rate.) 4 more straight wins and we would be 2nd. To win the title by the end of the season, assuming the teams above us keep scoring points at their rate for the season so far, we have to average 2.5 points per game - not impossible but a very tall order, particularly with a fixtures backlog. My summary; I believe we'll make the play-offs and have momentum behind us, which we didn't last year. To win the title iwould be very difficult but I will heartily support the team in striving to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark44 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 If all teams go at a points per game ratio we would indeed sit 5th on 89 points. Biggleswade would be top on 95. Given that we are playing the teams at the top we still have a very good chance IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staines_rebel_Jr Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 points per game is a terrible way to accurately predict where teams will finish. it doesnt take into account the matches where the teams play each other and most importantly it doesnt consider form. e.g last year or year before (cant remember) half way through the season no one would have predicted daventry doing so well but then they had a 17 game winning streak. also it doesnt consider that until now we havent had any kind of chance to get league match momentum due to cup games and weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark44 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Whilst you have a very valid point Staines the prediction table based on points per game is still a very good tool. If you track it over time you will see the subtle changes brought bout by form. For example Sycob are now on the brink of taking over Royston in a points per game but 6 games ago were nowhere near. It is using these to track changes that's important as mentioned above. We are currently 5th but given a good but of momentum we will rise up it. Also form is temporary and can be up and down but by 30 games gone I cannot see too much change. Daventry is merely an anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Rebel Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 think the predicted table is a decent evaluation of where we may finish but will be better idea once we have played a few more games and the games played is more equal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rebelbrewer Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 points per game is a terrible way to accurately predict where teams will finish. it doesnt take into account the matches where the teams play each other and most importantly it doesnt consider form. e.g last year or year before (cant remember) half way through the season no one would have predicted daventry doing so well but then they had a 17 game winning streak. also it doesnt consider that until now we havent had any kind of chance to get league match momentum due to cup games and weather. Not using it as a predictor so much as demonstrating the task in hand. Assuming the teams above us (and Biggleswade in particular) keep going at roughly the same rate (and 27-30 games is probably enough to be statistically predictive) then we have to net 2.5 points per game. That can be done but its a tough ask. I'm not a doom and gloom merchant - I want with every cell in my body for us to do it - so it helps me to know what's needed. It's not a perfect method (although until ll weather pitches came in it's precisiely how the national hockey league title was decided) but its certainly better than multiplying our games in hand by 3 and adding it on. Factoring in form is helpful but over how many games? Make it 3 games and we average 3 points per game - easily enough but unrealistic; make it 4 games and we average 2.25 points per game - not enough; make it the month of February and we average 2.16 points per game - not enough. Also how do you cover off factors like the relative number of away games we have. Points per game or percentage points (basically the same thing) is quick and dirty and gives some idea of the task ahead, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Juan DeMarcus Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 In essence 3 wins and a draw every 4 games. Easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark44 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Or 5 wins in 6. Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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