Promotion/PPG

[lazarus]

I think it's the sub-committee meeting on 8 May. They will make their recommendations to the Leagues Committee which will be ratified at their meeting a week later. That is when it will become general knowledge.

[The Mayor Of Simpleton]

https://docs.google....c3UVdqWnc#gid=0

 

Updated situation from Pete Miller. I was using non-league matters and a couple of their tables appear out of date. Also Pete has advised that many teams have failed the grading, including Brislington (Western) so there are now five second placed spots available, as he feels that there will be an extra spot in the Southern League.

 

Bitton and Hallen IIRC are the only two sides to have applied for promotion from the Western Premier, yet both are currently seventh and eighth respectively in their league.

 

Neither side would finish in the top two. Second placed Bishop Sutton don't have the correct grading either, as far as I am aware.

[E&E Rich]

Right at the top of the first page of this thread Brislington and Hallen are the clubs listed, so I went with that. Also Pete Miller indicates that Brislington have been rejected, so surely they must have applied in order to be rejected?

 

Either way no one is coming up from the Western League now.

[bomaya]

Brislington and Hallen are the two clubs that applied.

[E&E Rich]

Latest update, thanks largely to Pete Miller's excellent work.

 

It looks like there will be 16 places and more than likely 17 unless the Southern League decide to reprieve both bottom step four clubs to balance the resignations of two in the South West division, but if they did, it would mean a reprieve for Woodford who currently have zero points. That would be embarassing for the Southern League so I think there will be 17.

 

So what does this mean? The Wessex and Western League will provide no teams. Brislington have finished their schedule and will probably hang on to second in the Western League but they appear to have failed their grading. This means, as far as my thinking takes me, that there will be Champion (or runner-up) spots from 12 leagues and five second placed spots. Those five spots will come from the southern based step five leagues and with the Wessex not contributing, there are six of those.

 

Who is already guaranteed promotion from those 12 leagues?

Dunstable Town (South Midlands)

Scarborough Athletic (NCEL)

Marlow (Hellenic)

Stratford Town (Midland Alliance)

 

For the other eight leagues it is as follows:

CCL - Egham Town (favourite) or Guernsey

Eastern Counties - Dereham Town (favourite) or Wisbech Town

Essex Senior - Burnham Ramblers (favourite) or Barkingside

Kent - Erith & Belvedere (slight favourite) or VCD

Sussex - Peacehaven & Telscombe (favourite) or Redhill

NW Counties - Padiham (slight favourite) or Bootle or Runcorn Town or Winsford United

Northern - Darlington (favourite) or Spennymoor Town

United Counties - Champions Holbeach did not apply St Ives Town (favourite for second) or Spalding United

 

Right now the NWC (v.close) and Kent League are too close to call, but the others are virtually set, and many will be confirmed this weekend, which brings us to the second placed teams in the six remaining southern based leagues.

 

The first position will go to either Erith & B (2.40) or VCD (2.33) Even if they lost both games, the PPG for these two is too strong and they will both go up.

 

After that,

2) Aylesbury United (South Midlands) (2.29)

3) Guernsey (CCL) (2.18)

4) Wisbech Town (Eastern) (2.14)

5) Redhill (Sussex) (2.13)

6) Barkingside (Essex) (2.09)

 

Worryingly for Guernsey, all these sides below them are in better form They need at least five points from their three games this weekend to stay in front of the chasers.

 

There may well be a sixth spot available at some point in the future which would mean that Guernsey would then require just 11 points from their last eight games to confirm second ahead of Cove, but right now it looks like just the five spots.

 

A big weekend ahead for Guernsey. Can they hold on?

Edited April 26, 2013 by E&E Fred

[Green_Fingers]

Not so sure about the 17th slot Fred. To quote the FA's Mike Appleby back in July:

 

"The aim is to ensure that all bottom placed clubs at Step 4 are relegated, but if any teams drop out from Steps 1-4, the vacancy created will be filled by relegation reprieves. Extra teams from Step 5 will not be promoted."

 

Having said that the FA are known for going back on their word so as ever we wait & see

[Krooner]

I think Woodford have resigned anyway so will not be reprieved.

[Chris Clapham]

Kettering may go to the wall completely!

 

Published 25th April 2013

 

Kettering Face Winding-Up Order

 

Ritchie Jeune, in temporary charge of off-field affairs at Evo-Stik League Southern Premier Division club Kettering Town, was contacted by the club`s owner, Imraan Ladak, who indicated that Kettering Town F C Management Limited is facing a winding up order, issued by HM Revenue & Customs.

 

This order was presented on 18th March 2013, and advertised in the London Gazette on 17th April.

 

The hearing is in London next Monday, 29th April.

 

For the last 24 hours the volunteers who are trying to keep the club going, have been trying to investigate the extent of the winding up order, which, it seems, relates to monies due, assessed by HMRC, from the date of the CVA in June 2012.

 

The Limited Company has until 4pm tomorrow to give notice of its intention to oppose the petition and before that can be done more information and the cooperation of the club owner will be urgently sought.

[bomaya]

Still eight teams that can mathematically finish in the bottom three of the Premier. One of those, Camberley, need three more points to be definitely safe, trouble is they only have one game left which is tomorrow against Colliers Wood. Be interesting and nerve-wracking for Cambo if they lose that one.

 

The three lowest possible points-accruable are Sandhurst, Ash and Dorking. Other than those mentioned, still in the mix are Chessington & Hook, Wembley and Hartley Wintney.

 

Guaranteed to be playing in the CCLP next season are: Cove, Windsor, Molesey, Croydon, Horley T, Farnham, Bedfont S, Hanworth V, RPV. Also Epsom & Ewell, Badshot Lea and South Park if we assume that third place won't be good enough (which it won't).

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Still six teams that could win CCL1 and/or be top three: Frimley Green, Westfield, MVSCR, Eversley, Spelthorne and South Kilburn although only the first three can go up.

 

No relegations likely but CB Hounslow will of course finish bottom. If it hadn't been for their solitary victory then they'd be getting the same publicity that Woodford Utd are getting right now.

[NCEL fan]

I've read all of the info on Pete's (very impressive spreadsheet) and it is clear that based on a fair bit of supposition, there is every chance GFC can still go up, even if they drop points which they will no doubt do.

 

My only point of caution is regarding FA decisions in May - when the new step 2 was introduced in 2004, a few Step 4 clubs thought they would make it up but didn't. Threats of legal action and all sorts went on but those clubs ended up having to lump it.

 

Just got to keep going and see what comes out in the wash.

[VPCTFC]

Latest update, thanks largely to Pete Miller's excellent work.

 

It looks like there will be 16 places and more than likely 17 unless the Southern League decide to reprieve both bottom step four clubs to balance the resignations of two in the South West division, but if they did, it would mean a reprieve for Woodford who currently have zero points. That would be embarassing for the Southern League so I think there will be 17.

 

Reprieves that happen at the end of the season, such as those caused by teams resigning, are done across the board, not kept within a league. This is why I think Walton Casuals will be reprieved. They have the best ppg of the teams at the bottom of step 4.

 

An example from the FA website two years ago - "The resignations of both Glapwell and Retford United from the Northern Premier League at Step 4 led to both Beaconsfield SYCOB and Waltham Forest being reprieved from the drop to Step 5,"

 

http://www.thefa.com...ocations-200511

 

Everything above step 5 is pooled these days so the FA get the number of clubs sorted before allocating them to leagues.

There's a possibility one, or both of the Walton clubs could be shifted to the Southern League next season. That's where the border is now.

Edited April 26, 2013 by VPCTFC

[VPCTFC]

Still eight teams that can mathematically finish in the bottom three of the Premier. One of those, Camberley, need three more points to be definitely safe, trouble is they only have one game left which is tomorrow against Colliers Wood. Be interesting and nerve-wracking for Cambo if they lose that one.

 

The secretary asked me to let him know when we're mathematically safe. So far I haven't been able to give him that news!

If Ash lose tonight then we only need a point tomorrow to be secure. Even then, Dorking will need a swing of 21 goals to catch us.

Fingers crossed....

 

Edited April 26, 2013 by VPCTFC

[Green_Fingers]

Looking at Pete Millers spreadsheet updated after yesterdays results and assuming the view that there are 4 extra promotion slots available (rather than the guaranteed 2) I calculate that Guernsey need to achieve 92 points in order to be 1 of those extra 4 slots. Come on GFC - 14 points from 6 games - 4 wins & 2 draws and it'll all have been worth it !

 

http://bit.ly/2013step4and5

 

By the same calculation Egham have already secured promotion - even if Guernsey overhauled them they couldn't finish lower than 4th in the ppg table of runners-up

Edited April 28, 2013 by Green_Fingers

[E&E Rich]

Latest update including Tuesday's games:

 

Of the 16 (maybe 17 spots) available we now appear to know eleven of them.

 

Promoted as Champions:

Dereham Town - Eastern Counties, Burnham Ramblers - Essex Senior, Erith & Belvedere - Kent, Dunstable Town - South Midlands (unbeaten league record!), Marlow - Hellenic, Stratford Town - Midland Alliance, Scarborough Athletic - NCEL,

Darlington 1883 - Northern League

 

plus three who will either be second or are not yet guaranteed the title:

Egham Town - CCL, VCD Athletic - Kent, Aylesbury United - South Midlands

 

There are also three other leagues that have not yet determined their Champion or in the case of the United Counties League, the best runner up to Holbeach who did not apply for promotion. These are:

 

Peacehaven or Redhill - Sussex, Padiham or Bootle - NWC, St Ives or Spalding United - UCL

 

The first two of these require massive goal difference swings to change so we can assume Peacehaven and Padiham are up while a win for St Ives on Saturday is vital or Spalding will pass them with a win of their own.

 

Assuming Egham win the title (which they will do with either a win on Saturday or a Guernsey draw or loss in any of their four games) then there are two (or maybe three) more second placed spots available and here  is the current PPG:

 

Guernsey 2.211

Wisbech Town 2.184 (season completed)

Redhill 2.175

Barkingside 1.971

 

It looks like Barkingside are out of it, so if we do have 17 spots then the other three will go up. However, if just two go up, which could happen if the FA decide to reprieve Walton Casuals then it is very tight for Guernsey who have most games to play and therefore most potential for their PPG to drop.

 

Remaining games:

 

Guernsey - Dorking (H) 21st, Hartley Wintney (H) 19th, Epsom & Ewell (H) 4th, Farnham Town (H) 11th

Redhill - East Preston (A) 4th, Hailsham Town (H) 13th

 

Right now the only guarantee is that if Guernsey finish with a PPG above 2.184 they will guarantee promotion. That means they need 92 points, or 8 points from 4 games.

 

If Redhill lose their big game at East Preston on Saturday, then the most they can get is 90 points, or PPG 2.143, which means firstly that Wisbech would then be promoted, and that Guernsey would then only require 90 points for promotion as they have a better GD than Redhill, who would also probably then finish behind the non-applying East Preston in third but I don't know whether it is ppg or league position that is the tie breaker with the FA. VPCTFC any clues?

 

Guernsey fans in particular may be interested in @Redhillfc on twitter, while East Preston do not appear to have a twitter feed but are on http://www.eastprestonfc.co.uk/

 

If GFC beat Dorking on Friday then a win for them over Hartley on Saturday coupled with a Redhill loss would guarantee promotion as far as I can tell. Unless anyone else knows different!

[HKP]

Excellent analysis as ever, thanks for that.

[bomaya]

 

If Redhill lose their big game at East Preston on Saturday, then the most they can get is 90 points, or PPG 2.143, which means firstly that Wisbech would then be promoted, and that Guernsey would then only require 90 points for promotion as they have a better GD than Redhill, who would also probably then finish behind the non-applying East Preston in third but I don't know whether it is ppg or league position that is the tie breaker with the FA. VPCTFC any clues?

Well I'm not VP! But most commentators seem to think they will only look at the third placed teams once all the second placed teams are exhausted (no pun intended). Which to me means saying 3rd placed could go up was a bit of a joke but that's the FA for you.

[E&E Rich]

Cheers Bomaya! Any help is apreciated.

[Green_Fingers]

Some good news for Guernsey. Wisbech have withdrawn their application for promotion meaning that GFC now need just 2 points to be 1 of the 4 top 2nd placed teams and thus promoted 

 

http://bit.ly/16k7baY

[HKP]

But as has been pointed out to me elsewhere, those extra two places are not as yet confirmed...

[Green_Fingers]

But as has been pointed out to me elsewhere, those extra two places are not as yet confirmed...

What is confirmed is that Step 4 need 16 teams promoted from Step 5 in order for the FA to achieve their plan. Only 12 of the 14 Step 5 League can provide candidates. The FA have also stated that additional teams required to fill those Step 4 places will be taken from 2nd placed teams in 7 Leagues that feed the Ryman catchment area. Only 5 of those 7 Leagues can provide a 2nd placed team. GFC need to be one of the top 4 of those 5. GFC require just 2 more points to achieve just that.