Promotion/PPG

[The Mayor Of Simpleton]

There's similar concerns being raised with the low numbers in the Hellenic and Wessex leagues at Step 6.

[bomaya]

Thanks for the post Alan. Maybe with climate change, 16 teams might be all the leagues can handle in future.

[lazarus]

The problem is that we had exactly the opposite last season with some Div 1 teams finishing their fixtures in March.

[VPCTFC]

The problem is that we had exactly the opposite last season with some Div 1 teams finishing their fixtures in March.

 

That's happened this season in the Guildford & Woking Alliance. The divisions are very small in that league and a couple of teams finished their season on March 9th, others still have eight games to play.

Whichever way you do it some clubs will be unhappy. Look at the Suburban League - clubs complained the divisions were too big, the league changed it's set-up, now some are saying the divisions are too small. Who'd want to be on the committee of a Senior League?

 

I'd say the ideal number is 22 teams for leagues that have floodlights, 16 at intermediate level and 12 lower down.

Edited March 23, 2013 by VPCTFC

[bomaya]

Current PPG:

 

1. Guernsey 2.478

2. Egham 2.452

3. Epsom & Ewell 2.0

(Cove 1.935)

4. South Park 1.9

5. Badshot Lea 1.813

[Chris Clapham]

Guernsey FC have signed 7 players for the hectic end to the current Cherry Red Records CCL Premier Division league campaign.

 

 

Tom Strawbridge, Craig Young, Simon Marley, Mark McGrath and Ryan Tippett all return to the GFC set up.

 

16 year old Kyle Smith and Veteran midfielder Matt Drillot are likely to get their first appearances for the club.

 

'It's brilliant news that these boys have signed on,' says GFC Head Coach Tony Vance. 'We're going to need all the help we can get with so many games to play in such a short space of time. And I think these players should be playing in this environment anyway.'

 

News article dated: 02/04/2013

[Green_Fingers]

GFC are now half-way through their 20 match backlog and sit at the top of the 2nd placed ppg table of leagues that can promote a 2nd side. Even should they "only" repeat their ppg performance of their last 10 matches (2 points per game), it looks almost certain they will achieve their promotion aim, as for various reasons it is quite likely that up to 5 second placed teams will go up, not just the 2 originally expected.

 

http://bit.ly/2013step4and5

[VPCTFC]

GFC are now half-way through their 20 match backlog and sit at the top of the 2nd placed ppg table of leagues that can promote a 2nd side. Even should they "only" repeat their ppg performance of their last 10 matches (2 points per game), it looks almost certain they will achieve their promotion aim, as for various reasons it is quite likely that up to 5 second placed teams will go up, not just the 2 originally expected.

 

http://bit.ly/2013step4and5

 

You know my feelings on the way the FA word things GF. They're either deliberately ambiguous so they can make things up as they go along or whoever writes their rules needs to take a course.

On the one hand the FA have said they will promote two extra clubs from the south eastern step 5 leagues. After today's result Guernsey are now third in the ppg table so out of a promotion spot. In the past when the FA have had the opportunity to promote more step 5 teams they've not done so and reprieved teams at step 4 instead.

On the other hand the FA rules say 'any additional clubs required' and don't limit it to two in which case Guernsey are currently in a promotion spot.

 

One of the promotion spots on that spreadsheet will probably be erased shortly. I've notified the author that the FA have said they will reprieve at step 4 if clubs drop out from higher levels rather than promote more step 5 teams.

 

As is often the case, no one actually knows what's a promotion place and what isn't.

[In The Know]

Does all of the above alter with at least two Southern League Step 4 sides resigning and applying to the Wessex, namely Sholing and Winchester City.

[In The Know]

Mind you Winchester are bottom anyway Sholing are 6th

[Green_Fingers]

Does all of the above alter with at least two Southern League Step 4 sides resigning and applying to the Wessex, namely Sholing and Winchester City.

 

That's a definite maybe ITK. It's one of the reasons why there is the suggestion that more than 2 of the 2nd placed teams may get promoted but as VP points out, the FA have stated that resignations from Step 4 will mean reprievals for others at that level. As ever the FA in their infinite wisdom will decide

[bobuk]

Looking more and more that only the Champions will go up now unless Guernsey win all there games. The PPG has dropped rapidly and you'd think they will drop more. If they didn't go up that would be a moral to win it next season and the VASE would be alot more realistic.

[E&E Rich]

I disagree Bob.

 

For starters, while the FA will often reprieve from higher up, if the Southern League have lost two clubs, they still needed to expand by two in the first place, so even if they didn't relegate anyone else, they still need two more teams in their league I would have thought. Winchester is effectively a relegation anyway.

 

Right now I believe there will be three second placed slots. Newport IOW have blown it in the Wessex League and there were two extra slots available originally. However, no one except Guernsey and Egham can get up to the sort of PPG that is required now, so it is important for the other clubs in our league that they both go up.

 

Also looking like we might actually get someone down this year too as Walton Casuals are in trouble. This will mean definitely one down from our division and possibly two still. I can confirm from Saturday's game that Sandhurst are still definitely up for the survival battle!

[HKP]

ormering.com reckon Guernsey need 7 wins out of the 9 games remaining..http://ormering.com/index.php?pr=News

Edited April 22, 2013 by HKP

[E&E Rich]

So far we have four guaranteed promotion (ground gradings permitting). They are Dunstable Town (S.Mids), Stratford Town (Mid Alliance), Scarborough Athletic (NCEL) and Marlow (Hellenic).

 

Of the others, Guernsey still hold the third best PPG amongst second placed sides as Oxhey have slipped recently and now need to win their remaining three games to pip Aylesbury United on GD for second (assuming Aylesbury win their final game at Hertford, which they should).

 

Guernsey currently have 2.24 behind Aylesbury (2.293) and VCD (Kent - 2.286). I still believe Egham will win the title despite recent draws as Guernsey's final four games in four days is looking really punishing now with three of the four teams still needing points and the fourth, Farnham, playing really well right now.

 

How many do Guernsey need to have a realistic chance of promotion as one of the best second placed teams? The current rate would get 94 but if you look at recent form, they won't get that. Many teams are struggling there though, and the next best second placed side is currently Wisbech (Eastern Counties) with 2.114. At their rate they should get 89 but could get 92. I think Guernsey will need 15 points from their nine matches but it could be as high as 18 from 9.

 

Of course, there could be more promotion places, depending on the other factors we've all discussed previously but with Colliers Wood, Ash, Molesey, Sandhurst and Bedfont Sports up next, you would expect them to get at least 11 with three wins and two draws (in my opinion).

[E&E Rich]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqII2SlGRhT7dHIwSUdacDRlaDV3VkNsSjc3UVdqWnc#gid=0

 

Updated situation from Pete Miller. I was using non-league matters and a couple of their tables appear out of date. Also Pete has advised that many teams have failed the grading, including Brislington (Western) so there are now five second placed spots available, as he feels that there will be an extra spot in the Southern League.

[HKP]

Thanks for that. be a lot easier if we just won all of our games!

[bomaya]

I haven't checked any stats since the weekend games but I still can't see Guernsey NOT be promoted. And Fred is right, Walton Casuals are all but mathematically down. Anyone got that Craig Lewington quote about the CCL handy?

[VPCTFC]

https://docs.google....c3UVdqWnc#gid=0

 

Updated situation from Pete Miller. I was using non-league matters and a couple of their tables appear out of date. Also Pete has advised that many teams have failed the grading, including Brislington (Western) so there are now five second placed spots available, as he feels that there will be an extra spot in the Southern League.

 

There is a debate regarding step 4 reprieves. My view is based on what the FA have done in the past and what Mike Appleby said in July. Quote - "“it’s in the rules, you reprieve in England. In Scotland, when Rangers went down to Division Three, they promoted Dundee, but we do it differently."

Also on the same page - although not actually attributed to Mike - "The aim is to ensure that all bottom placed clubs at Step 4 are relegated, but if any teams drop out from Steps 1-4, the vacancy created will be filled by relegation reprieves. Extra teams from Step 5 will not be promoted."

 

http://theonionsack....em-changes.html

 

There is an error on that blog where it says only five leagues will be those chosen for promoting up to two clubs. The FA have confirmed there were seven leagues in the mix.

 

I reckon, as we stand, there are four second placed clubs in a promotion spot with Redhill just missing out so every point is precious.

Edited April 22, 2013 by VPCTFC

[VPCTFC]

I haven't checked any stats since the weekend games but I still can't see Guernsey NOT be promoted. And Fred is right, Walton Casuals are all but mathematically down. Anyone got that Craig Lewington quote about the CCL handy?

 

Ha! I know what you're talkign about but that was a couple of years ago now. Things have changed.

If my view about step 4 reprieves is correct then it's currently Walton Casuals who have the best ppg in the relegation places so they're first in line to stay up. There are so few games left that i don't think Casuals can be caught by any of the other clubs.

 

The FA's Leagues Committee meets on May 8th to discuss allocations although, if past seasons are anything to go by, the results of the meeting don't get made public for a while.