Promotion/PPG

[bomaya]

Newport IOW's weekend loss means they are now very unlikely to finish in a promotion place, meaning that the Wessex League will have no teams going up this year. That means that there will now be three extra places after you have promoted the other 13 champions or runners up, and those three will come from the seven southern based leagues. However, one of those is the Wessex League so now it looks like three from six southern based Leagues which is a massive improvement in the odds for the CCL having a second promotion team.

 

Except Newport IOW are nearer the top of their league than Guernsey are and if they won their games in hand, they'd be top or second. And they only have to finish top three to go up.

[The Mayor Of Simpleton]

The Wessex Premier will also be one team lighter next season, as Bashley and New Milton are set to merge.

[E&E Rich]

I never said it wouldn't happen Bomaya, I just said it was less likely.

[bomaya]

Egham's victory last night was extra significant as it pushed their ppg up above Guernsey's. Guernsey are now in the extra 2 slots to go up with their ppg of 2.37. The other lucky club right now is Oxhey Jets from the Spartan South Mids. Epsom & Ewell's ppg is now 2.14.

[Guvnor No1]

100 points will get Egham and Guernsey up

[E&E Rich]

I think that's accepted Guvnor.

 

The real question is how many points is "likely" to get a second placed team up.

 

Based on the current PPG for Guernsey and Oxhey, then that equates to 99. However, Oxhey lost 4-0 at the weekend (admittedly to Dunstable Town PPG 2.66 but it was still a loss) and drew the week before, while Guernsey know that they will drop points as the campaign gets busier and busier for them.

 

So what is the points target in our league, assuming that only two runners up are required? It's clearly going to be over 84 (PPG 2.00). I looked at our matches and determined that assuming (big ask) we shared the two matches with Guernsey I think 27 points from our remaining 33 would be enough, putting us on 92 (including three points from the two Guernsey games). This would mean that Guernsey would need 44 points from their other 21 games to match that figure and therefore pass us on goal difference. For Egham to reach 92, they would need another 32 points from their remaining 17 matches.

 

Essentially, the bottom line is that we are still miles away from finding out whether they can get that number with a tiring squad, or indeed whether we ourselves can get 9 wins from our other 11 league matches. I believe that a win at Cove is essential to achieve that, as South Park are edging closer and Cove themselves would only be three points behind us with a game in hand. As before the players have to take it one game at a time, while supporters like us can look ahead a little and dream of the permutations!

 

By the way, Newport IOW lost again last night and now look very long odds for a top three place. Their PPG is below 2 now. More than ever I feel that there will be at least three extra spaces now, although with the FA restriction on one extra spot per league I can see us coming third with a better PPG than some second placed teams in other leagues who would go up instead. Doesn't really seem fair, that bit.

Edited February 28, 2013 by E&E Fred

[mal316]

By the way, Newport IOW lost again last night and now look very long odds for a top three place. Their PPG is below 2 now. More than ever I feel that there will be at least three extra spaces now, although with the FA restriction on one extra spot per league I can see us coming third with a better PPG than some second placed teams in other leagues who would go up instead. Doesn't really seem fair, that bit.

 

What is not fair about that.

 

If you don't finish in the promotion positions then you are not eligible for promotion end off. So what if you finish in 3rd with 99 points and someone from the Hellenic League finishes in 2nd with 80 points. At the end of the day you didn't finish high enough in the table and better luck next season,

[Windsor_Sec]

Unfortunately Mal it's another FA wishy-washy decision at the end of the day. Instead of taking several best PPG 2nd placed teams why not just say they'll take [for this season only] 2 teams from each league and actually relegate the step 4 clubs that plainly aren't deserving of their positions if they finish in the bottom of their respective divisions ?

The FA should ultimately introduce an equal system at ALL levels ie 3 up 3 down and playoffs at every level or no playoffs at all.

[bomaya]

The FA should ultimately introduce an equal system at ALL levels ie 3 up 3 down and playoffs at every level or no playoffs at all.

 

Totally agree. I advocate three down from each Step 4 league and therefore 18 possible promotion slots from the 14 Step 5 leagues.

[Green_Fingers]

Unfortunately Mal it's another FA wishy-washy decision at the end of the day. Instead of taking several best PPG 2nd placed teams why not just say they'll take [for this season only] 2 teams from each league and actually relegate the step 4 clubs that plainly aren't deserving of their positions if they finish in the bottom of their respective divisions ?

The FA should ultimately introduce an equal system at ALL levels ie 3 up 3 down and playoffs at every level or no playoffs at all.

 

How would they do that? - 3 up from 14 Step 5 Leagues would mean 42 down from 6 Step 4 Divisions - i.e. the bottom 7 in each

[Green_Fingers]

Totally agree. I advocate three down from each Step 4 league and therefore 18 possible promotion slots from the 14 Step 5 leagues.

 

Interesting theory Bomaya - out of curiosity if 6 Northern Premier teams were relegated this season which 6 teams taken from 14 Step 5 Champions plus 4 best runners up would you replace them with?

[Chris Clapham]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqII2SlGRhT7dHIwSUdacDRlaDV3VkNsSjc3UVdqWnc#gid=0

 

Enjoy

[bomaya]

Interesting theory Bomaya - out of curiosity if 6 Northern Premier teams were relegated this season which 6 teams taken from 14 Step 5 Champions plus 4 best runners up would you replace them with?

 

From the Northern League, it's Spennymoor and Darlington. From the Northern Counties East, it's Scarborough then either Bridlington or Brighouse. From the North West, it's Padiham then either Bootle or Runcorn.

[E&E Rich]

An excellent piece of work from Pete Miller there.

 

I think in a perfect world we'd all like to see an even number up and down, but when you have a pyramid structure that works 1-2-3-6-14 it's just not feasible.

 

Maybe a 1-2-4-8-12 structure would work better but to do that you'd have to rearrange the divisions and we all know how much protest that received last year For the FA to back down on anything there must have been real hostility.

 

So we have to deal with this step 5 bottleneck as best we can, although I presume that next season the Ryman (being a 24 team league) will have three down from each division instead of two, making the 14 spots for the 14 leagues. People forget that it was possible to win your league and not go up in the past, but because there was always a league or two that didn't promote, it wasn't an issue, but will surely be more so in the future.

 

If the leagues above are forced to guarantee those 14 relegations from next seasons, then any teams folding or taking voluntary demotion would mean there would be a space or two for some Step Five runners up each season, which could at least make the end of the season a bit more interesting. No Nice guy, wherever you are, we don't want a plate competition!

[The Mayor Of Simpleton]

I would favour a 1-2-4-8-16-32-64 system, in order to relieve bottle-necking (especially around London and the Midlands).

 

A Midlands Premier League at Step 3 is long overdue.

 

If leagues have to be 24-22-20-20-20-20-18 down to Step 7, in order to make it viable, then so be it.

[Windsor_Sec]

How would they do that? - 3 up from 14 Step 5 Leagues would mean 42 down from 6 Step 4 Divisions - i.e. the bottom 7 in each

 

GF I did actually say that the FA should introduce an equal system - which would mean having the correct number of leagues in the first place and hence why I used 'ie' !

We all know there are too many step 5 leagues in the Southern half of the country so instead of faffing about every couple of seasons with differing scenarios why not do it just once and properly so that every club will in future know exactly where they stand on the promotion/relegation issue and every league has an equal chance to promote clubs to the next level ? At least nowadays it's slightly better than it used to be as I remember Windsor & Eton in the late 70's winning the Athenian League 2 years running, Q/F and S/F Vase appearances and regularly in the latter Qualifying rounds and 1st Round FA Cup and with a suitable ground grading yet were still denied promotion by the old school tie brigade protecting their own clubs !

[Green_Fingers]

GF I did actually say that the FA should introduce an equal system - which would mean having the correct number of leagues in the first place and hence why I used 'ie' !

We all know there are too many step 5 leagues in the Southern half of the country so instead of faffing about every couple of seasons with differing scenarios why not do it just once and properly so that every club will in future know exactly where they stand on the promotion/relegation issue and every league has an equal chance to promote clubs to the next level ? At least nowadays it's slightly better than it used to be as I remember Windsor & Eton in the late 70's winning the Athenian League 2 years running, Q/F and S/F Vase appearances and regularly in the latter Qualifying rounds and 1st Round FA Cup and with a suitable ground grading yet were still denied promotion by the old school tie brigade protecting their own clubs !

 

Out of interest Windsor_Sec what would you propose to achieve this aim ?

[Windsor_Sec]

GF, it would have to be a radical shake and upset a lot of people up but ultimately it would end up as:-

 

Step 1 Premier League, Step 2 Championship North & South, Step 3 Football League N, S, E & W, Step 4 New league X 8 regional divisions, Step 5 ditto X 16 regional divisions, Step 6 32 X regional/county leagues. All divisions would operate with the same number of teams.

 

This works out at Step 1 - 4 down, Step 2 - 2 up & 4 down from each division, Step 3 - 2 up and 4 down from each division, Step 4 - 2 up and 4 down from each division, Step 5 - 2 up and 4 down from each division and Step 6 - 2 up from each division.

 

No playoffs whatsoever, you play 40, 42, 44 league games a season and should be judged on that and not what you do in a one-off game !

 

Like I say it's radical and would meet a lot of resistance but it guarantees 2 teams promotion whatever level you play at and stops clubs being happy with finishing 4th from bottom every year !

 

I never said it would be easy but that's how I would do it !

 

10 years on and the teams able to progress will have found their correct level as will the ones that currently bat above their level and at a cost that clubs will be able to afford as travelling will always be reasonably local.

 

PS. If anyone from the FA copies my idea I would expect a consultancy fee. LOL.

Edited March 2, 2013 by Windsor_Sec

[Green_Fingers]

GF, it would have to be a radical shake and upset a lot of people up but ultimately it would end up as:-

 

Step 1 Premier League, Step 2 Championship North & South, Step 3 Football League N, S, E & W, Step 4 New league X 8 regional divisions, Step 5 ditto X 16 regional divisions, Step 6 32 X regional/county leagues. All divisions would operate with the same number of teams.

 

This works out at Step 1 - 4 down, Step 2 - 2 up & 4 down from each division, Step 3 - 2 up and 4 down from each division, Step 4 - 2 up and 4 down from each division, Step 5 - 2 up and 4 down from each division and Step 6 - 2 up from each division.

 

No playoffs whatsoever, you play 40, 42, 44 league games a season and should be judged on that and not what you do in a one-off game !

 

Like I say it's radical and would meet a lot of resistance but it guarantees 2 teams promotion whatever level you play at and stops clubs being happy with finishing 4th from bottom every year !

 

I never said it would be easy but that's how I would do it !

 

10 years on and the teams able to progress will have found their correct level as will the ones that currently bat above their level and at a cost that clubs will be able to afford as travelling will always be reasonably local.

 

PS. If anyone from the FA copies my idea I would expect a consultancy fee. LOL.

 

Now for your big challenge. Put current Clubs (you'll only need to go halfway down current Step 7) into your proposed new structure.

[The Mayor Of Simpleton]

Certainly a brave idea there by Windsor Sec.

 

Just out of interest, how many teams would be in these leagues? 20, 22, 24?