Slough v Arlesey

[Nathan]

Irishadrian, readingrebel and Ian have all made very good points IMHO.

 

Some people seam to be under the delusion that simply because there are 19 games left, we'll get 19 wins and therefore everything will be okay.

 

I am aware that the other top sides have all to play each other, but we have also to play Daventry, Rugby, Arelesy, Woodford (twice), Ashford, Leighton and Biggleswade. Given our record against the top sides under Bateman, and seeing as we have already been comprehensively beaten by Daventry, Rugby, Arelesy (and also beaten by Leighton) so far this season, the omens don't look good do they?

 

This may seem negative, but in actuality I'm simply being realistic. We are unlikely to make the play-offs. The league table suggests, and our performances thus far also suggest that we are a mid-table team. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

I'll repeat - we may be 5th at the moment, but points per game we are well off the pace.

[Windsor Rebel]

Yawn

[Nathan]

Yawn

 

A constructive post if ever I saw one...

[Windsor Rebel]

Negative rubbish again , Nathan

[HorshamRebel]

Come on, enough of the in-fighting.

 

We need to start getting behind the team for Saturday

[Martin]

But what exactly are you advocating Nathan?

 

There is not one positive comment in that post. You, Ted, Ian and Irishadrian are all perfectly entitled to be negative and often constructive points are made. My first post in this thread was pretty critical of the performance and some of the tactics but found time to praise some of what we are doing and to suggest that Arlesey are a pretty good team. I get the impression that you and Ted (and irishadrian who I think may have a hidden agenda) feel that change and that top is required - fair enough - but we don't really need to run over the same points every time we get a poor result.

 

I personally think SB has performed a minor miracle turning us from relegation cannon fodder to play off finalists and has earnt plenty of time in the role.

 

Nobody thinks we will win all our remaining games but listing lots of play-off contenders we still have to play shows it remains in our own hands.

 

Incidentally the league table shows that we are fifth rather than mid-table.

 

Lets see where we are at the end of the season and save the rest of our energy to doing what we all do best which is supporting the Rebels.

 

COYR!

 

 

[Nathan]

Martin, I'm not advocating anything other than maybe we are simply not as good a team as some people on here seem to think we are.

 

Regarding my lack of positive comments on my previous posts, I am afraid that I am simply not upto the task of turning a damaging 3-0 defeat, which has really put us on a back foot in terms of the play-off race, into some sort of huge success that some people on here would like to believe it is.

 

Me and other people on this forum have made certain points repeatedly, because to us they are rather obvious points that really need addressing in order for us to progress as a team. They have been repeated by me and others for quite some time now, but still nothing is being done.

 

Maybe it wasn't such a good thing that we made the play-offs last year - it certainly seems to have raised the expectactions among all connected with STFC, including Bateman himself who (as Irishadrian quite rightly pointed out - I don't know what you mean when you suggest he has a hidden agenda) as all but promising the play-offs at the start of the season.

 

I have to disagree with your comments regarding it is still in our own hands. As it stands, we are relying on teams like Rugby and Daventry to collapse in the 2nd half of the season.

 

For the 3rd (and hopefully, final) time - we are 5th at the moment because lots of other teams have had games cancelled for wahtever reason. Points per game is a much better indicator of where we are in the league.

[A Rebel and a Saint]

I have refrained from making comment on the game so far this week, especially given the fact that once again this discussion has broken out and dragged out the thread about the original match.

 

Yes we were outplayed by Arlesey, they stuck to their game very well and defended as such so that we threw everything at them and they could then catch us on the break, but it is not the end of the world. The season is not over, there are plenty of games to go against the teams in the top half of the league.

We had a very inconsistant run of form at the end of last season, and we are having the same problem now, but I think you will all agree that it is many times better than just a couple of seasons ago.

 

The best clubs develop through stability at all levels of the club. We have the right people in charge at the top with a sensible chairman and management board, and given his success last season Bateman has certainly earned the chance to be our manager in the long term. He will be just as frustrated as we are and desperately trying to turn around the fortunes of the team. We need to make sure we are behind him and the team and stop all the infighting just because we lost a game against a very good team.

 

Can we look forward to the game on Saturday now?

 

 

[readingrebel]

I have refrained from making comment on the game so far this week, especially given the fact that once again this discussion has broken out and dragged out the thread about the original match.

 

Yes we were outplayed by Arlesey, they stuck to their game very well and defended as such so that we threw everything at them and they could then catch us on the break, but it is not the end of the world. The season is not over, there are plenty of games to go against the teams in the top half of the league.

We had a very inconsistant run of form at the end of last season, and we are having the same problem now, but I think you will all agree that it is many times better than just a couple of seasons ago.

 

The best clubs develop through stability at all levels of the club. We have the right people in charge at the top with a sensible chairman and management board, and given his success last season Bateman has certainly earned the chance to be our manager in the long term. He will be just as frustrated as we are and desperately trying to turn around the fortunes of the team. We need to make sure we are behind him and the team and stop all the infighting just because we lost a game against a very good team.

 

Can we look forward to the game on Saturday now?

 

 

 

 

Good post Araas.

 

Yes, I'm really looking forward to Saturday especially as it looks like we're gonna get some treats on the coach provided by Sue and the gang.

[Ian]

You, Ted, Ian and Irishadrian are all perfectly entitled to be negative and often constructive points are made.

 

I didn't think my post was negative, Martin! If we have 20 (?) games left it's unrealistic to think we'll lose all of them but it's equaly unrealistic to think win them all either. Therefore I'd argue that we're likely to win a few and lose a few as we've done up to now. Don't think that's negative at all. I'll still be cheering the team on and hoping we win every game. Reality is however that we need to improve on our form so far to make the playoffs.

[hitchin_chris]

I agree Reading. Hitchin are the best team in this league. You just have to look at the table to see that.

 

I think we do up our game against them and I think that Hitchin is more of a Derby for us in terms of what a derby should be like than the likes of Burnham et al

 

 

Whether Hitchin are the best team in the division will be known at the end of the season and I'm sure their two games with Arlesey will be the deciding factor. Hitchin are certainly the most consistant team in the division,that's why they are top.

 

Actually we might have got lucky. Not due to play Arlesey until 15th March now. Might mean the pitch is better, in which case we will murder their back four for pace. But by then they might have bought another half a dozen new players!

 

I didn't say it before now, but consistency does play a big part. It won the League for Bury last season even though we got 4 points out of 6 off them and would have nicked it at their place but for a missed penalty.

 

Having read all these posts, I agree 100% with Windsor Rebel. I think you'll make the play-offs along with Man City, Rugby and my outside bet.....Bedfont. I'd also fancy you against any of those in a one-off game.

Edited January 20, 2011 by hitchin_chris

[Nathan]

hitchin_chris, I wouldn't make predictions about where we'll finish based purely on our performances against Hitchin. Were were pretty good against you the other week, but that has been the exception rather than the rule, as Ian has already pointed out. Those types of tough, determined performances have been few and far between this season, which has only fuelled some of the criticism the team gets becasue everyone knows they can do it!

 

We stuffed Biggleswade 5-1 earlier this season, and then promptly went and lost at Erith Town only a week later, before going on a run of only 1 league win in 8 league games. We showed tremendous character in coming from 3-0 to beat Beaconsfield 6-4 (POSITIVITY there for anybody who says I'm never positive - shame I wasn't there that night though...), but then promptly went and lost at lowly Uxbridge. We gave you a good game the other week and we all thought maybe we can do this week in and week out, but Tuesday night proved we couldn't.

[Martin]

Ian, I know your post was pretty positive (and accurate) but I didn't want anyone to think I was singling them out! I could quite easily have added myself and Staines Rebel to that list and indeed pretty much any other Slough fan who posts on here. And I know we will all be there Saturday (or whenever we next make a game) cheering them on again. We all call it as we see it and we are all entitled to our opinion - it is the joy of football and football forums.

 

I happen to agree with Nathan that we need more of a physical presence and height up front if we are going to be relying on crosses etc. I also happen to think that Burnell and Sonner are our best forwards and both are in form so I would have been bemused if one of them had been on the bench on Tuesday night. In my view SB is damned if he does damned if he doesn't.

 

As for the league table I have never heard of it being organised on a points per games ratio in the entire history of football. I have also never heard of anyone saying in April that they are relieved that they have 10 games to play in 20 days because their points to games ratio is much better than the six teams above so they'll be fine.

 

You can prove anything you like with statistics. If I had the time, the will or the inclination I could prove categorically that is impossible for all the teams below us to maintain their points to games ratio. Repeating your point three times Nathan doesn't make it correct. The correct indicator of where you are in the table is the number of points on the board already. Games in hand show where you might be IF things go against you. Games aren't played on paper they are played on grass (or at Barton a ploughed field).

 

See you Saturday, come on you Rebels

[Ted]

You can prove anything you like with statistics.

 

 

Not so. You can use or misuse statistics. If used correctly, they are an extremely valuable analytical tool.

 

As teams have not played the same number of games, the league table on it's own is misleading. Points per game is a better (but not perfect) guide, and is completely valid to use. certainly gives a more valid analysis than league position. Points per game is only another tool and will never replace Nostradamus like ability to see into the future.

 

Even maths can be misused. For example

 

1. Let a and b be equal non-zero quantities

 

a=b

 

2. Multiply through by a

 

 

3. Subtract b squared

 

 

 

4. Factor both sides

 

(a-b )(a+b ) = b(a-b )

 

 

5. Divide out (a-b )

 

a+b=b

 

6. Observing that a=b

 

b+b=b

 

7. Combine like terms on the left

 

2b=b

 

8. Divide by the non-zero b

 

2=1

 

So there you are. 2=1. Or does it?

 

I will also point out that I am not calling for changes "at the top". I am far from certain that SB can get us promoted (I hope I'm wrong), but I am less concerned about promotion than some. I don't see getting into the play offs as the holy grail for this season Maybe SB is doing a good job, but our expectations of promotion are innappropriate.

 

I'm more concerned about getting a new ground, as I think that once that is sorted, promotion becomes more sustainable.

 

Anyway, 73 posts on this thread so far. One of the longest arguments for a while.

Edited January 21, 2011 by Ted

[Radders]

Haven't posted on the forum for what feels like a millenium but since this thread was getting so much action I thought I'd like to be a part of it. I haven't been to a lot of games recently (for example I missed our spirited comeback against SYCOB, our poor demise against Uxbridge or our 'stunning' win over Marlow to name but a few). However, I did see the games against Hitchin and Arlesey which seem to be the 2 which are being most highly scrutinised. Against Hitchin we played with spirit, heart and determination especially after the sending off. Against Arlesey we were slow, tried to be too precise and became too obvious. Sometimes this happens and it's very rare for any team to perform to the highest level in every game. As many Hitchin fans have stated, despite our good showing in that game, they felt their team was slightly below par and, let's be honest, had it not beenfor at least 2 brilliant saves from Fanner, the scoreline in that game could have looked remarkably like the one on Tuesday night. My main point is yes we are inconsistent but I hlod this against us more when we lose to teams like Uxbridge and Soham than when we lose to Arlesey. It's always nice to take points off those nearest to you, but as Hitchin Chris points out, it did very little good for them against Bury last year.

 

On the point of points (pardon the pun), I don't have a problem with using a points per game ratio to give an indication of how the final table COULD look. However, the word COULD is highly important. What is slightly irritating is that some people, and I have to say Nathan in particular although I'm honestly not just picking on you, seem the need to use this system as a statement of what WILL happen. We COULD win all of our remaining games, we COULD also lose all of them. We COULD continue at exactly the same rate of points per game as we are at the moment up till the end of the season. But actually, all of these three are as unlikely to happen as each other. As they are for any other team. Like Martin, I would much rather have points on the board than worry about catching up a 6 point gap by playing 4 games or more in 8 days. Nathan, you are not wrong to use this method to analyse how the season COULD end, but that doesn't mean that this is how it WILL end.

 

Final point - If we do make the play offs and if we do get promoted then we will have deserved it. Someone further back in this thread (the damn things so long I can't be bothered to scroll all the way back through it to find out who it was) said that if we got promoted this year we would end up coming straight back down again. Why? At this level of football there are plenty of teams in the league above who will lose money, lose players, lose form over the next 6-8 months. In fact half the teams in the league above are probably no better than us anyway. They just happened to be in that league and they've been lucky enough not to be the worst team in it or unlucky enough to not be the best team in it and they've stayed there. It's a lot harder to get out of a league at this level than to stay there. This is a bit different to the football league although not in all cases. If Blackpool hadn't got promoted last year, I wouldn't be surprised if they were languishing in mid-table obscurity in this year's Championship. They took their chance last year, managed to cling onto a place in the Play Offs and then won it. And who would have thought they'd be sitting pretty comfortable in the Premier League 6 months later. Or how about Stoke? Or Wigan who've now been there for about 6 years? If we do make the play offs we will have deserved it. The points per game ratio will prove that!!!!!

 

 

[Mark44]

Using the above logic stated by Ted

 

1. Let a and b be equal non-zero quantities

 

a=b

 

2. Multiply through by a

 

 

3. Subtract b squared

 

 

 

4. Factor both sides

 

(a-b )(a+b ) = b(a-b )

 

 

5. Divide out (a-b )

 

a+b=b

 

6. Observing that a=b

 

b+b=b

 

7. Combine like terms on the left

 

2b=b

 

8. Divide by the non-zero b

 

2=1

 

So there you are. 2=1. Or does it?

 

 

 

 

 

The reason you got to the statement of 2=1 is because the logic is not correct

 

The reason is that you have broken one of the the basic concepts of mathematics............

 

When factoring out you are diving each side of the equation by (a- , however if a=b then you are dividing by zero which in fact if anything make each side infinity as you cannot physically divide by zero.

 

no idea why b has turned out to be a guy in shades

Edited January 21, 2011 by Mark44

[Martin]

This thread is now truly brilliant as we've wandered into the field of mathematics.

 

Ted, you are absolutely right statistics can be either used or misused but they are never "correct". Statistics is the collection and interpretation of data it is not pure mathematics They are skewed by whoever produces them and the format they choose to illustrate them.

 

The formulae you have produced is also not pure mathematics and actually breaks down at link number 3 because then you are saying effectively that 0 = 0. Everything thereafter equals zero.

 

 

[Nathan]

Like Martin, I would much rather have points on the board than worry about catching up a 6 point gap by playing 4 games or more in 8 days. Nathan, you are not wrong to use this method to analyse how the season COULD end, but that doesn't mean that this is how it WILL end.

 

Radders, I couldn't agree more - it's just that I happen to think its far more likely that the other teams will pull ahead with their games in hand and that we won't be able to make up the gap. Some people on this board however really should take your point on board - some people do think that just becasue a miracle COULD happen, then it WILL happen!

 

I could continue this discussion, but I've gone around in circles so often on this thread alone its beginning to make me feel dizzy!

[Radders]

I honestly don't think people on here so much THINK it will happen but do want to BELIEVE it will happen. I am certainly not sitting here right now thinking 'oh, we're 5th at the moment, we will be in the play offs in just over 3 months time'. And I would offer pretty good money that nobody else, even the most optimistic of Slough fans, is thinking that. However, there are a number of Slough fans, of which I am one, who would rather stay as positive as possible and keep turning up each week BELIEVING that we COULD reach the play offs. It certainly makes it a lot more fun and exciting to have that point of view believe me. When it's mathematically impossible to do it then we can begin the inquisition into why we haven't. But until that time let's get on with supporting the team and help make the need for that inquisition obsolete rather than coming up with the same old gripes after every defeat.

 

Up the Rebels - from a BELIEVER!!!

[Nathan]

Call me an infidel if you'd like (and I'm sure some of you will ), but I'm a firm believer that if you build up something that with every passing week is looking more and more like false hope, then it will only make the disappointment even greater when it does come.

 

As for it being more fun and exciting, well watching performances like Tuesday night, or at Uxbridge, or during our bad run between September and early November whilst at the same time trying to believe that we'll turn it around eventually wasn't exactly fun and exciting was it?

 

Let's just agree to differ on this one whilst following ARAAS's advice and hope for a win tomorrow, otherwise we'll be here arguing about it until the end of time!