More "Fun with Numbers".

[Rick the Dick]

Just for fun, and not with any conclusions...

 

On average it has taken 72 points to take the last play-off spot over the last 4 seasons.

 

To reach that we need a further 36 from the maximum 54 available to us from our remaining 18 games ie.. 66.6%

 

So far we've won 36 points from 72 available ie.. 50%

 

11 of our 18 remaining games are against opposition that is currently lower placed.

 

Make what you want of all that.

 

 

 

 

 

[The Town Crier]

 

 

We have already played a significant number of the current higher placed teams away from home Rick.

 

Does that change anything %-wise

[Rick the Dick]

Originally Posted By: The Town Crier

We have already played a significant number of the current higher placed teams away from home Rick.

Does that change anything %-wise

Probably

To increase our points "hit rate" from the current 50% to the required 66.6% requires a 33% imrovement in results. Not having to face many of the teams above us may help us achieve that, as does having the players available who have returne from injury. As mentioned elsewhere, having to play nearly 3 games a week for the rest of the season will no doubt take it's toll though.

The numbers can be interpreted in a number of ways, but at least they illustrate that our season is still very much alive.

[The Town Crier]

 

 

Some clubs seem to be trimming their squads at the moment, and this may also help us improve our hit rate.

 

Because of our problems early doors we have assembled a decent sized squad. Added to this, we now have a number of young guns chomping at the bit for an opportunity to show us what they can do. so I'm hoping our back log of fixtures won't impact too much.

 

66% is a big ask, but not impossible, we do need a run of uninterrupted games though.

[bill-ER-ricky]

Id look at the situation as we need 2 points from every game to the end of the season that would be 66%

 

so over the next 6 league games

 

Sat 07 RLP H Tonbridge Angels

Sat 14 RLP A Dartford

Tue 17 RLP A Tooting & Mitcham United

Sat 2 RLP H Horsham

Sat 28 RLP A Ramsgate

Tue 03 RLP A Wealdstone

 

so we need 4 wins and 2 losses = 12 points

3 wins and 3 draws = 12 points

 

or just 6 straight wins will do!!

 

any predictions!! on these games

[Rick the Dick]

Best not to get to carried away with the 72 point average for 5th spot either. For 2 of the last 4 seasons it would not have been enough, & 74 were needed. Our goal difference isn't good either unfortunately, and that can be worth an extra point if we're level with someone.

 

Best to think of 66% as the minimum needed to make the last few games "interesting"

 

A predicted points tally from our last 18 games would be interesting. Probably best to apply some standard "rules" to take the guess work out of it. Something like;

 

Top 1/3 teams, away lose, home win.

Mid 1/3 teams, away draw, home win.

Bottom 1/3 teams away win, home win.

 

Or change the rule to what you think is a realistic expectation.

 

I may do this when I have more time. Right now I have to take my Anorak to the Dry Cleaners

[The Town Crier]

 

 

Points per game so far:

 

Tonbridge....1.81

Sutton.......1.61

Carlshalton..1.68

[The Town Crier]

 

 

Points per game so far:

 

Tonbridge....1.81

Sutton.......1.61

Carlshalton..1.68

Dartford.....1.51

Canvey.......1.39

Wealdstone...1.46

Hornchurch...1.54

Billeicay....1.50

Horsham......1.45

Borehamwood..1.25

Tooting & M..1.18

[Rick the Dick]

Originally Posted By: Rick the Dick

Just for fun, and not with any conclusions...

On average it has taken 72 points to take the last play-off spot over the last 4 seasons.

To reach that we need a further 36 from the maximum 54 available to us from our remaining 18 games ie.. 66.6%

So far we've won 36 points from 72 available ie.. 50%

11 of our 18 remaining games are against opposition that is currently lower placed.

Make what you want of all that.

32 points from a maximum 39 now needed from our remaining 13 games. Here's how to do it:-

Hastings Home = 3pts
Canvey Home = 3pts
Harlow Away = 3pts
Dover Home = 1pt
Swifts Away = 3pts
Margate Away = 1pt (they thumped Canvey tonight, before the leccy meter ran out)
Harlow Home = 3pts
Ashford Home = 3pts
Angels Home = 3pts
Carshalton Away = 1pts
Swifts Home = 3pts
B.Wood Home = 3pts
Maidstone Away = 1pt

Yes, I know that's only 31!

Strange thing is that as un-achievable as that looks above, if you look at the table we're 8 points behind Dartford & Sutton in 5th & 6th place, with one or two games in hand. Win those and we close the gap to between 2 to 5 points with 11 or 12 to play.

I wonder if 5th place is going to be taken with a particularly low points tally this season?

[GazzaBTFC]

No pressure on the management then...eh, Rick?

[Rick the Dick]

Originally Posted By: GazzaBTFC

No pressure on the management then...eh, Rick?

As I said above, on the surface ayone would say say that looks pretty un-achievable. So no, it's not prressuring the management.

It's a bit like a keeper facing a penalty. If he saves it he's a hero. If he doesn't... no ones too suprised.

[Brightside Bloke]

Is pressure not part of the package when your in a management position regardless of profession?

 

Now added pressure that's a different ball game!

[Rick the Dick]

I would hope that, should Grant or Jason bother to read any of the rubbish that myself & others post on here, the last thing they should feel is "pressure" "Disdain", maybe, "Deserved Contempt", absolutely; but "pressure"? Nah.

 

If they can't cope with the innane ramblings of a minority of fans then they really are in the wrong job. Personally, I'm sure they can.

[GazzaBTFC]

I was joking...

[Rick the Dick]

Can you wave a smile on a stick next time, just so we know

[GazzaBTFC]

No I can't as that application doesn't work all the time...You'll have to guess...